IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v45y2022ics154461232100266x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multivariate CDS risk premium prediction with SOTA RNNs on MI[N]T countries

Author

Listed:
  • Kutuk, Yasin
  • Barokas, Lina

Abstract

In this study, CDS risk premiums of Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey were predicted by applying state-of-the-art forecasters in deep learning recurrent neural networks architectures which are the most recent ground-breaking predictors in the time series setting. The predictive power of each sota forecaster is compared, and the results are differentiated by country and type of sota predictors. While the long short-term memory model is better to predict Mexico’s CDS risk premiums, the nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs model is found to be more suitable for Indonesia and Turkey. The results of Turkey model reached the highest forecast accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kutuk, Yasin & Barokas, Lina, 2022. "Multivariate CDS risk premium prediction with SOTA RNNs on MI[N]T countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:45:y:2022:i:c:s154461232100266x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S154461232100266X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102198?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank X. Zhang, 2003. "What did the credit market expect of Argentina default? Evidence from default swap data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Oil volatility and sovereign risk of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 258-269.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    4. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    5. Augustin, Patrick & Tédongap, Roméo, 2016. "Real Economic Shocks and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 541-587, April.
    6. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
    7. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    8. Acharya, Viral V. & Johnson, Timothy C., 2007. "Insider trading in credit derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 110-141, April.
    9. Yang Liu & Bruce Morley, 2012. "Sovereign credit default swaps and the macroeconomy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 129-132, February.
    10. Calice, Giovanni & Mio, RongHui & Štěrba, Filip & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: A regime-dependent analysis for European credit default swaps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-189.
    11. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    12. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2013. "Oil price uncertainty and sovereign risk: Evidence from Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 51-57.
    13. Clark, Ephraim & Kassimatis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects on emerging-markets sovereign credit spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment‐Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
    15. repec:eid:wpaper:03/11 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    17. Sabkha, Saker & de Peretti, Christian & Hmaied, Dorra, 2019. "Nonlinearities in the oil effects on the sovereign credit risk: A self-exciting threshold autoregression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-133.
    18. Kim, Kwanho, 2017. "Liquidity basis between credit default swaps and corporate bonds markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 98-115.
    19. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Ms. Yoon Sook Kim, 2004. "Equity Prices, Credit Default Swaps, and Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2004/027, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. Alsubaiei, Bader & Calice, Giovanni & Vivian, Andrew, 2021. "Sovereign CDS and mutual funds: Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Kabir Hassan, M. & Alam, Nafis, 2014. "Price discovery process in the emerging sovereign CDS and equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 117-132.
    4. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    5. Steven Lecce & Andrew Lepone & Michael D. McKenzie & Jin Boon Wong & Jin Y. Yang, 2018. "Short‐selling and credit default swap spreads—Where do informed traders trade?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 925-942, August.
    6. Rahmi Erdem Aktug, 2015. "Empirical dynamics of emerging financial markets during the global mortgage crisis," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 15(1), pages 17-36, March.
    7. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    8. Chuffart, Thomas & Hooper, Emma, 2019. "An investigation of oil prices impact on sovereign credit default swaps in Russia and Venezuela," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 904-916.
    9. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert, 2018. "Is Thailand’s credit default swap market linked to bond and stock markets? Evidence from the term structure of credit spreads," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 324-341.
    10. Dimitrios Koutmos, 2018. "Interdependencies between CDS spreads in the European Union: Is Greece the black sheep or black swan?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 441-498, July.
    11. Ismailescu, Iuliana & Phillips, Blake, 2015. "Credit default swaps and the market for sovereign debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 43-61.
    12. Stephen Zamore & Kwame Ohene Djan & Ilan Alon & Bersant Hobdari, 2018. "Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 811-835, March.
    13. Hassan, M. Kabir & Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Yu, Jung-Suk, 2015. "Credit default swaps and sovereign debt markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 240-252.
    14. ngene, Geoffrey & Hassan, Mohammad Kabir, 2012. "Momentum and Nonlinear Price Discovery in Sovereign Credit Risk and Equity Markets of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Countries," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 46(2), pages 101-114.
    15. Eyssell, Thomas & Fung, Hung-Gay & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2013. "Determinants and price discovery of China sovereign credit default swaps," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-15.
    16. Calice, Giovanni & Ioannidis, Christos & Miao, RongHui, 2016. "A Markov switching unobserved component analysis of the CDX index term premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 189-204.
    17. Sabkha, Saker & de Peretti, Christian & Hmaied, Dorra, 2019. "Nonlinearities in the oil effects on the sovereign credit risk: A self-exciting threshold autoregression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-133.
    18. Pereira, John & Sorwar, Ghulam & Nurullah, Mohamed, 2018. "What drives corporate CDS spreads? A comparison across US, UK and EU firms," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 188-200.
    19. Calice, Giovanni & Mio, RongHui & Štěrba, Filip & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: A regime-dependent analysis for European credit default swaps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-189.
    20. Chernov, Mikhail & Augustin, Patrick & Song, Dongho, 2018. "Sovereign credit risk and exchange rates: Evidence from CDS quanto spreads," CEPR Discussion Papers 12857, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swap; Forecasting; Time series; Recurrent neural networks; Deep learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:45:y:2022:i:c:s154461232100266x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.