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Testing the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the crude oil prices

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  • Ghazani, Majid Mirzaee
  • Ebrahimi, Seyed Babak

Abstract

This paper examines the existence of the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) as an evolutionary alternative to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) by applying daily returns on the three benchmark crude oils. The data coverage of daily returns is from 2003 to 2018. The automatic portmanteau and generalized spectral tests is applied in this study. The results show that the Brent and the WTI oil markets possess the highest efficiency levels. In addition, the behavior of OPEC basket data represents that when we approaching toward longer window lengths (e.g. from 100 to 500-days); the degree of conformity with AMH decreases.

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  • Ghazani, Majid Mirzaee & Ebrahimi, Seyed Babak, 2019. "Testing the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the crude oil prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 60-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:30:y:2019:i:c:p:60-68
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2019.03.032
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    Cited by:

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    5. Babangida, Jamilu Said, 2023. "Nonlinearity in emerging market indices: A comprehensive study of stock exchange market dynamics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 72, pages 23-37.
    6. Mensi, Walid & Sensoy, Ahmet & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on asymmetric multifractality of gold and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Alaba, Oluwayemisi O. & Ojo, Oluwadare O. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Abu, Nurudeen & Ajobo, Saheed A., 2021. "Comparative Analysis of Market Efficiency and Volatility of Energy Prices Before and During COVID-19 Pandemic Periods," MPRA Paper 109825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Pınar Evrim Mandacı & F. Dilvin Taskın & Zeliha Can Ergun, 2019. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 84-101.
    9. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2021. "Nonlinearities and Chaos: A New Analysis of CEE Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-13, March.
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    11. Muhammad Naeem Shahid, 2022. "COVID-19 and adaptive behavior of returns: evidence from commodity markets," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Bhatia, Madhur, 2023. "On the efficiency of the gold returns: An econometric exploration for India, USA and Brazil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
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    14. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Adaptive market hypothesis: The story of the stock markets and COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    15. Espinosa-Paredes, G. & Rodriguez, E. & Alvarez-Ramirez, J., 2022. "A singular value decomposition entropy approach to assess the impact of Covid-19 on the informational efficiency of the WTI crude oil market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Evolutionary; Adaptive market hypothesis; Weak-form efficiency; Crude oil prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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