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On the methodology of energy-GDP Granger causality tests

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  • Beaudreau, Bernard C.

Abstract

Despite their growing technical sophistication and empirical breadth, Granger energy-GDP causality tests remain inconclusive, leaving unresolved the increasingly relevant debate over the role of energy or energy growth in economic growth. While historians and growth theorists point to the development of the steam engine, the electromagnetic motor and the ensuing energy deepening as a key contributing factor in economic growth, the existing tests provide little support for this view. This paper examines this debate, focusing particular attention on the underlying methodology, specifically on the measures of energy used. It is argued that existing tests, by regressing GDP growth on current and lagged levels of energy consumption growth, do not capture the essence of the historical record and recent work on energy and development [23,35]. A new energy metric in the form of energy availability is presented and discussed in detail.

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  • Beaudreau, Bernard C., 2010. "On the methodology of energy-GDP Granger causality tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3535-3539.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:9:p:3535-3539
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.03.062
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    2. Fallahi, Firouz, 2011. "Causal relationship between energy consumption (EC) and GDP: A Markov-switching (MS) causality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4165-4170.
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    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Islam, Faridul & Sabihuddin Butt, Muhammad, 2015. "Finance-Growth-Energy Nexus and the Role of Agriculture and Modern Sectors: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Test Approach to Cointegration in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 62848, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Mar 2015.
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    6. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2016. "Finance–Growth–Energy Nexus and the Role of Agriculture and Modern Sectors: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Test Approach to Cointegration in Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(5), pages 1037-1059, October.
    7. Brantley Liddle, 2013. "The Energy, Economic Growth, Urbanization Nexus Across Development: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel Estimates Robust to Cross-Sectional Dependence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    8. Parajuli, Ranjan & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Dalgaard, Tommy & Pokharel, Govind Raj, 2014. "Energy consumption projection of Nepal: An econometric approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 432-444.
    9. Zheng, Wei & Walsh, Patrick Paul, 2019. "Economic growth, urbanization and energy consumption — A provincial level analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 153-162.
    10. Liddle, Brantley & Lung, Sidney, 2015. "Revisiting energy consumption and GDP causality: Importance of a priori hypothesis testing, disaggregated data, and heterogeneous panels," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 44-55.
    11. Wei Zheng & Patrick Paul Walsh, 2018. "Economic growth, urbanization and energy consumption," Working Papers 201817, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy; GDP; Granger causality; Methodology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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