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Is China's carbon trading market efficient? Evidence from emissions trading scheme pilots

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  • Wang, Xiao-Qing
  • Su, Chi-Wei
  • Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona
  • Li, Hao
  • Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan

Abstract

This paper examines whether the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) holds in the Chinese carbon trading pilots by employing the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM) which is combined with the Panel KSS unit root tests with Fourier function. This approach serves as a highly valid tool in controlling for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity as well as structural shifts and nonlinearities. In virtue of the SPSM, the paper could divide the whole panel into two groups and clearly identify which and how many series belong to stationary or non-stationary group. The results show that carbon prices follow mean reversion process, indicating that the EMH does not hold in the Chinese emissions trading scheme (ETS), with the exception of Shanghai. The inefficiency of ETS pilots can be explained by irrational behaviors, poor information transparency, imperfect market mechanism and transaction costs. Accordingly, the failure of EMH implies the existence of profitable arbitrage opportunities for market participants. To establish the nationwide ETS market, policy lessons should be learned from Shanghai as this pilot is demonstrated to be an efficient market. Additionally, policymakers should improve the trading information disclosure system and formulate uniform guidelines, which is propitious to enhance market efficiency of the Chinese ETS.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Xiao-Qing & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Li, Hao & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2022. "Is China's carbon trading market efficient? Evidence from emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:245:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222001438
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.123240
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    2. Yuanfeng Hu & Yixiang Tian & Luping Zhang, 2023. "Green Bond Pricing and Optimization Based on Carbon Emission Trading and Subsidies: From the Perspective of Externalities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
    3. Zhixiong Weng & Cuiyun Cheng & Yang Xie & Hao Ma, 2022. "Reduction Effect of Carbon Emission Trading Policy in Decreasing PM 2.5 Concentrations in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Wu, Rongxin & Tan, Zhizhou & Lin, Boqiang, 2023. "Does carbon emission trading scheme really improve the CO2 emission efficiency? Evidence from China's iron and steel industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon trading; Efficient market hypothesis; Sequential panel selection method; Panel KSS unit Root test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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