IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v107y2017icp109-118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market efficiency assessment under dual pricing rule for the Turkish wholesale electricity market

Author

Listed:
  • Asan, Goksel
  • Tasaltin, Kamil

Abstract

This study analyses the price dynamics of day-ahead and real-time electricity prices following the implementation of dual-pricing legislation in Turkey, to understand the legislation's impact on arbitrage opportunities and market efficiency. The convergence of prices between the day-ahead forward and the real-time markets analysed in order to determine whether persistent price differences between the two markets exist. Arbitrage opportunities exist if there is a persistent difference between prices in the day-ahead forward and real-time market. Markets are considered to be efficient if it is not possible for market participants to earn an excess profit through exploitation of price differences. Furthermore, we examined how the ex-post risk premium changes over time using rolling estimations and find that after the implementation of dual pricing, the risk premium increased significantly for day and peak hours where the demand is relatively higher compared to night hours. As market participants have more experience regarding the dynamics of the market, the difference between real-time and day-ahead forward prices converges to zero since the dual-pricing regime enforce market participants to forecast accurately by punishing the forecast error.

Suggested Citation

  • Asan, Goksel & Tasaltin, Kamil, 2017. "Market efficiency assessment under dual pricing rule for the Turkish wholesale electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 109-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:109-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.04.024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517302495
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.04.024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
    2. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    3. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    4. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    5. Quan, Nguyen T. & Michaels, Robert J., 2001. "Games or Opportunities: Bidding in the California Markets," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 99-108.
    6. Arciniegas, Ismael & Barrett, Chris & Marathe, Achla, 2003. "Assessing the efficiency of US electricity markets," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 75-86, June.
    7. Weron, Rafał & Zator, Michał, 2014. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 178-190.
    8. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-210, March.
    9. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 1999. "Cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices: insights on transmission efficiency in the western US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 435-448, October.
    10. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    11. Francis A. Longstaff & Ashley W. Wang, 2004. "Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1877-1900, August.
    12. Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2012. "Market efficiency and risk premia in short-term forward prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1931-1941.
    13. Boogert, Alexander & Dupont, Dominique, 2005. "On the effectiveness of the anti-gaming policy between the day-ahead and real-time electricity markets in The Netherlands," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 752-770, September.
    14. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Christopher R. Knittel & Catherine Wolfram, 2001. "Trading Inefficiencies in California's Electricity Markets," NBER Working Papers 8620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Figlewski, Stephen, 1984. "Hedging Performance and Basis Risk in Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 657-669, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ünal, Berat Berkan & Onaygil, Sermin & Acuner, Ebru & Cin, Rabia, 2022. "Application of energy efficiency obligation scheme for electricity distribution companies in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    3. Mustafa Kemal Yilmaz & Necla I. Kucukcolak & R. Ali Kucukcolak, 2018. "Market Efficiency and Risk Premium in the Turkish Wholesale Electricity Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 76-88.
    4. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Li, Hao & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2022. "Is China's carbon trading market efficient? Evidence from emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arciniegas, Ismael & Barrett, Chris & Marathe, Achla, 2003. "Assessing the efficiency of US electricity markets," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 75-86, June.
    2. Mustafa Kemal Yilmaz & Necla I. Kucukcolak & R. Ali Kucukcolak, 2018. "Market Efficiency and Risk Premium in the Turkish Wholesale Electricity Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 76-88.
    3. Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Wagner, Christian, 2009. "Reforming minute reserve policy in Germany: A step towards efficient markets?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3513-3519, September.
    4. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Diana, 2021. "Risk premia in electricity derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Hagen, Liv Aune & Nygård, Maria Tandberg & Smith-Sivertsen, Ragnhild & Sollie, Johan M., 2015. "The overnight risk premium in electricity forward contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 293-300.
    6. Weron, Rafał & Zator, Michał, 2014. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 178-190.
    7. Stefan Trück & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Convenience Yields and Risk Premiums in the EU‐ETS—Evidence from the Kyoto Commitment Period," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 587-611, June.
    8. Pawel Maryniak & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Carbon pricing, forward risk premiums and pass-through rates in Australian electricity futures markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    9. Erik Haugom & Peter Molnár & Magne Tysdahl, 2020. "Determinants of the Forward Premium in the Nord Pool Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-18, March.
    10. Li, Kun & Cursio, Joseph D. & Jiang, Mengfei & Liang, Xi, 2019. "The significance of calendar effects in the electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 487-494.
    11. Lo Prete, Chiara & Norman, Catherine S., 2013. "Rockets and feathers in power futures markets? Evidence from the second phase of the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 312-321.
    12. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 758-770, July.
    13. Koten, Silvester Van, 2020. "Forward premia in electricity markets: A replication study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Maryniak, Paweł & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Carbon pricing and electricity markets — The case of the Australian Clean Energy Bill," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 45-58.
    15. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    16. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in electricity wholesale spot markets: empirical evidence from Germany," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-11, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
    17. Bunn, Derek W. & Chen, Dipeng, 2013. "The forward premium in electricity futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-186.
    18. Singh, Tarlok, 2014. "On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 169-192.
    19. Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J. & Moore, J. & Horowitz, I., 2011. "Wind generation and zonal-market price divergence: Evidence from Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3928-3938, July.
    20. Zhang, Yue & Farnoosh, Arash, 2019. "Analyzing the dynamic impact of electricity futures on revenue and risk of renewable energy in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 678-690.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:109-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.