IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v63y2013icp553-561.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists

Author

Listed:
  • Dinwoodie, John
  • Tuck, Sarah
  • Rigot-Müller, Patrick

Abstract

This paper aims to synthesise maritime specialists' perceptions of changing patterns of maritime oil freight flows to 2050. Debate spans published maritime oil flows globally, diverse drivers of future flows including economic growth, shipping market changes and haul lengths. A classic Delphi study to explore the perceptions of likely trends and flows to 2050 recruited a panel of early career and established maritime specialists, many with long term career commitments to this industry. Underpinned by market volatility and legislative uncertainty, the perceptions of both groups coincided and were conservative. Local sourcing, new Arctic seaways and fossil fuel intolerance will tend to reduce oil freight work but perceptions of ship re-routing to avoid for example Emission Control Areas and piracy would tend to lengthen hauls. In advanced industrial nations, reducing energy intensities and diminishing social tolerance of fossil fuels imply gradually reducing maritime oil shipments. However, to achieve radical national commitments to carbon emissions reductions will necessitate specialist education for naturally conservative maritime professionals and vigorous oil import reduction policies to curtail domestic demand for oil shipments.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinwoodie, John & Tuck, Sarah & Rigot-Müller, Patrick, 2013. "Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 553-561.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:63:y:2013:i:c:p:553-561
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.08.068
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513008720
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.08.068?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Makkonen, Mari & Pätäri, Satu & Jantunen, Ari & Viljainen, Satu, 2012. "Competition in the European electricity markets – outcomes of a Delphi study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 431-440.
    2. Bhatia, Rohit & Dinwoodie, John, 2004. "Daily oil losses in shipping crude oil: measuring crude oil loss rates in daily North Sea shipping operations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 811-822, April.
    3. Verbruggen, Aviel & Al Marchohi, Mohamed, 2010. "Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5572-5581, October.
    4. Lindstad, Haakon & Asbjørnslett, Bjørn E. & Strømman, Anders H., 2011. "Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and cost by shipping at lower speeds," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3456-3464, June.
    5. T T Gilje & J Dinwoodie & J Challacombe, 2002. "Crude Carrier Consolidation and Capital Cost," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 4(1), pages 35-54, March.
    6. Michael R Czinkota & Ilkka A Ronkainen, 1997. "International Business and Trade in the Next Decade: Report from a Delphi Study," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 28(4), pages 827-844, December.
    7. Parsons, James & Dinwoodie, John & Roe, Michael, 2011. "Northern opportunities: A strategic review of Canada's Arctic icebreaking services," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 549-556, July.
    8. Alberts, Daniel J., 2007. "Stakeholders or subject matter experts, who should be consulted?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2336-2346, April.
    9. LaBelle, Michael, 2012. "Constructing post-carbon institutions: Assessing EU carbon reduction efforts through an institutional risk governance approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 390-403.
    10. John Dinwoodie & Jeffrey Morris, 2003. "Tanker forward freight agreements: the future for freight futures?," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 45-58, January.
    11. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    12. Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm, 2008. "WEC energy policy scenarios to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2464-2470, July.
    13. Lindstad, Haakon & Asbjørnslett, Bjørn E. & Strømman, Anders H., 2012. "The importance of economies of scale for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from shipping," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 386-398.
    14. David Glen & Peter Marlow, 2009. "Maritime Statistics: a new forum for practitioners," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 185-195, April.
    15. D. R. Glen, 2006. "The modelling of dry bulk and tanker markets: a survey," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 431-445.
    16. Ho, Joshua, 2010. "The implications of Arctic sea ice decline on shipping," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 713-715, May.
    17. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Darkow, Inga-Lena, 2010. "Scenarios for the logistics services industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 46-59, September.
    18. Nakhle, Carole, 2007. "Do high oil prices justify an increase in taxation in a mature oil province? The case of the UK continental shelf," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4305-4318, August.
    19. Tavana, Madjid & Pirdashti, Mohsen & Kennedy, Dennis T. & Belaud, Jean-Pierre & Behzadian, Majid, 2012. "A hybrid Delphi-SWOT paradigm for oil and gas pipeline strategic planning in Caspian Sea basin," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 345-360.
    20. Cimen Karatas Cetin & A. Güldem Cerit, 2010. "Organizational effectiveness at seaports: a systems approach," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 195-219, May.
    21. Carole Nakhle, 2007. "Do High Oil Prices Justify an Increase in Taxation in a Mature Oil Province? The Case of the UK Continental Shelf," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 116, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    22. Gilbert, Paul & Bows, Alice, 2012. "Exploring the scope for complementary sub-global policy to mitigate CO2 from shipping," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 613-622.
    23. Piecyk, Maja I. & McKinnon, Alan C., 2010. "Forecasting the carbon footprint of road freight transport in 2020," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 31-42, November.
    24. Miola, A. & Marra, M. & Ciuffo, B., 2011. "Designing a climate change policy for the international maritime transport sector: Market-based measures and technological options for global and regional policy actions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5490-5498, September.
    25. Qu, Mei & Ahponen, Pirkkoliisa & Tahvanainen, Liisa & Pelkonen, Paavo, 2010. "Chinese academic experts' assessment for forest bio-energy development in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6767-6775, November.
    26. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Brandt, Adam & Miller, Richard, 2010. "Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5290-5295, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tuomas Kiiski & Tomi Solakivi & Juuso Töyli & Lauri Ojala, 2018. "Long-term dynamics of shipping and icebreaker capacity along the Northern Sea Route," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(3), pages 375-399, September.
    2. Shepard, Jun U. & Pratson, Lincoln F., 2020. "Maritime piracy in the Strait of Hormuz and implications of energy export security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Mhd Ruslan, Siti Marsila & Mokhtar, Kasypi, 2020. "An Analysis of Price Disparity: Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(2), pages 53-66.
    4. Dinwoodie, John & Landamore, Melanie & Rigot-Muller, Patrick, 2014. "Dry bulk shipping flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of early career specialists," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 64-75.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dinwoodie, John & Landamore, Melanie & Rigot-Muller, Patrick, 2014. "Dry bulk shipping flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of early career specialists," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 64-75.
    2. Prasad, Ravita D. & Bansal, R.C. & Raturi, Atul, 2014. "Multi-faceted energy planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 686-699.
    3. Xing, Hui & Spence, Stephen & Chen, Hua, 2020. "A comprehensive review on countermeasures for CO2 emissions from ships," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Lee, Tsung-Chen & Chang, Young-Tae & Lee, Paul T.W., 2013. "Economy-wide impact analysis of a carbon tax on international container shipping," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 87-102.
    5. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    6. Ančić, Ivica & Šestan, Ante, 2015. "Influence of the required EEDI reduction factor on the CO2 emission from bulk carriers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 107-116.
    7. Brown, Lawrence H. & Blanchard, Ian E., 2012. "Energy, emissions and emergency medical services: Policy matters," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 585-593.
    8. Harvey, L.D.D., 2013. "Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
    9. Pierre, Cariou & Francesco, Parola & Theo, Notteboom, 2019. "Towards low carbon global supply chains: A multi-trade analysis of CO2 emission reductions in container shipping," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 17-28.
    10. Lindstad, Haakon & Bright, Ryan M. & Strømman, Anders H., 2016. "Economic savings linked to future Arctic shipping trade are at odds with climate change mitigation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 24-30.
    11. van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Effective climate-energy solutions, escape routes and peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 530-536.
    12. Traut, Michael & Gilbert, Paul & Walsh, Conor & Bows, Alice & Filippone, Antonio & Stansby, Peter & Wood, Ruth, 2014. "Propulsive power contribution of a kite and a Flettner rotor on selected shipping routes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 362-372.
    13. Johnson, Hannes & Styhre, Linda, 2015. "Increased energy efficiency in short sea shipping through decreased time in port," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 167-178.
    14. Menegaki, Angeliki N. & Tsagarakis, Konstantinos P., 2015. "Rich enough to go renewable, but too early to leave fossil energy?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1465-1477.
    15. Shkolnikov, E.I. & Zhuk, A.Z. & Vlaskin, M.S., 2011. "Aluminum as energy carrier: Feasibility analysis and current technologies overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4611-4623.
    16. Wong, Eugene Y.C. & Tai, Allen H. & Lau, Henry Y.K. & Raman, Mardjuki, 2015. "An utility-based decision support sustainability model in slow steaming maritime operations," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 57-69.
    17. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    18. van Moerkerk, Mike & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2016. "A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 148-158.
    19. Sheng, Yu & Shi, Xunpeng & Su, Bin, 2018. "Re-analyzing the economic impact of a global bunker emissions charge," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 107-119.
    20. Meng, Ming & Niu, Dongxiao & Shang, Wei, 2014. "A small-sample hybrid model for forecasting energy-related CO2 emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 673-677.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:63:y:2013:i:c:p:553-561. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.