Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland

Contents:

Author Info

  • Daly, Hannah E.
  • Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the EU as a means of meeting energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change and energy security goals. This paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation, with a focus on private car energy demand. We populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for Ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data. The model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types, the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity. The impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom-up approach, which can aid policy development and evaluation. The level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption, thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets. This paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario. Baseline results for Ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth (0.2%, compared with 4% in the period 2000–2008), caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511007166
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 12 ()
    Pages: 7815-7824

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:12:p:7815-7824

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Car stock model; Transport demand; Baseline forecast;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Hull, David & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P. & Walker, Neil, 2009. "Development of a modelling framework in response to new European energy-efficiency regulatory obligations: The Irish experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5363-5375, December.
    2. Zachariadis, Theodoros, 2006. "On the baseline evolution of automobile fuel economy in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1773-1785, September.
    3. Sorrell, Steve & Dimitropoulos, John & Sommerville, Matt, 2009. "Empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1356-1371, April.
    4. Rogan, Fionn & Dennehy, Emer & Daly, Hannah & Howley, Martin & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2011. "Impacts of an emission based private car taxation policy - First year ex-post analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 583-597, August.
    5. Schipper, Lee & Figueroa, Maria J. & Price, Lynn & Espey, Molly, 1993. "Mind the Gap: The Vicious Circle of Measuring Automobile Fuel Use," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt06n8g4x9, University of California Transportation Center.
    6. DeCicco, John M., 1995. "Projected fuel savings and emissions reductions from light-vehicle fuel economy standards," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 205-228, May.
    7. Ó Gallachóir, Brian P. & Howley, Martin & Cunningham, Stephen & Bazilian, Morgan, 2009. "How private car purchasing trends offset efficiency gains and the successful energy policy response," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3790-3802, October.
    8. Alan Greenspan & Darrel Cohen, 1999. "Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, And Sales," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 369-383, August.
    9. Hennessy, Hugh & Tol, Richard S.J., 2011. "The impact of tax reform on new car purchases in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7059-7067.
    10. Giuliano, Genevieve & Dargay, Joyce, 2006. "Car ownership, travel and land use: a comparison of the US and Great Britain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 106-124, February.
    11. Kwon, Tae-Hyeong, 2006. "The determinants of the changes in car fuel efficiency in Great Britain (1978-2000)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2405-2412, October.
    12. Wohlgemuth, Norbert, 1997. "World transport energy demand modelling : Methodology and elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1109-1119, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Lavigne, Denis & Rout, Ullash K. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2013. "Modelling the impacts of challenging 2020 non-ETS GHG emissions reduction targets on Ireland′s energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1438-1452.
    2. Jennings, Mark & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P. & Schipper, Lee, 2013. "Irish passenger transport: Data refinements, international comparisons, and decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 151-164.
    3. Driscoll, Áine & Lyons, Seán & Mariuzzo, Franco & Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Simulating demand for electric vehicles using revealed preference data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 686-696.
    4. Leinert, Stephan & Daly, Hannah & Hyde, Bernard & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2013. "Co-benefits? Not always: Quantifying the negative effect of a CO2-reducing car taxation policy on NOx emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1151-1159.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:12:p:7815-7824. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.