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Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland

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  • Daly, Hannah E.
  • Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

Abstract

Targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the EU as a means of meeting energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change and energy security goals. This paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation, with a focus on private car energy demand. We populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for Ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data. The model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types, the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity. The impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom-up approach, which can aid policy development and evaluation. The level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption, thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets. This paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario. Baseline results for Ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth (0.2%, compared with 4% in the period 2000–2008), caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2011. "Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7815-7824.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:12:p:7815-7824
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.027
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    3. Daly, Hannah E. & Ramea, Kalai & Chiodi, Alessandro & Yeh, Sonia & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Incorporating travel behaviour and travel time into TIMES energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 429-439.
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    5. Mulholland, E. & Rogan, F. & Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2017. "From technology pathways to policy roadmaps to enabling measures – A multi-model approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1030-1041.
    6. Morgenroth, Edgar & Murphy, Martin & Moore, Kyle, 2018. "The environmental impacts of fiscal instruments," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT351, June.
    7. Whyte, Kieran & Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2013. "Modelling HGV freight transport energy demand in Ireland and the impacts of the property construction bubble," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 245-251.
    8. Driscoll, Áine & Lyons, Seán & Mariuzzo, Franco & Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Simulating demand for electric vehicles using revealed preference data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 686-696.
    9. Yan, Shiyu & De Bruin, Kelly & Dennehy, Emer & Curtis, John, 2020. "A freight transport demand, energy and emission model with technological choices," Papers WP669, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Leinert, Stephan & Daly, Hannah & Hyde, Bernard & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2013. "Co-benefits? Not always: Quantifying the negative effect of a CO2-reducing car taxation policy on NOx emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1151-1159.
    11. Alam, Md. Saniul & Hyde, Bernard & Duffy, Paul & McNabola, Aonghus, 2017. "Assessment of pathways to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger car fleets: Case study in Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 283-300.
    12. Foley, Aoife & Tyther, Barry & Calnan, Patrick & Ó Gallachóir, Brian, 2013. "Impacts of Electric Vehicle charging under electricity market operations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 93-102.
    13. Jennings, Mark & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P. & Schipper, Lee, 2013. "Irish passenger transport: Data refinements, international comparisons, and decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 151-164.
    14. Barla, Philippe & Gilbert-Gonthier, Mathieu & Kuelah, Jean-René Tagne, 2014. "The demand for road diesel in Canada," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 316-322.
    15. Yan, Shiyu & de Bruin, Kelly & Dennehy, Emer & Curtis, John, 2021. "Climate policies for freight transport: Energy and emission projections through 2050," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 11-23.
    16. Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Lavigne, Denis & Rout, Ullash K. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2013. "Modelling the impacts of challenging 2020 non-ETS GHG emissions reduction targets on Ireland′s energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1438-1452.
    17. González Palencia, Juan C. & Furubayashi, Takaaki & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2012. "Energy use and CO2 emissions reduction potential in passenger car fleet using zero emission vehicles and lightweight materials," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 548-565.

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