IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v171y2022ics0301421522004955.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electric vehicle deployment & fossil fuel tax revenue in Mexico to 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Bonilla, David
  • Arias Soberon, Héctor
  • Galarza, Oscar Ugarteche

Abstract

We assess the changes in Mexico's privately owned vehicle fleet and tax losses (fuel duty on gasoline) associated to the deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) through a diffusion model. Our projections for 2050 focus on a) electricity use of EVs, b) gasoline use and c) revenue for Mexico's treasury. The model uses population growth and vehicles sales to project two items: a) EV diffusion and b) substitution rates of ICVs with EVs. The equation uses vehicle km travelled and average consumption of fuel to calculate gasoline use of vehicles.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonilla, David & Arias Soberon, Héctor & Galarza, Oscar Ugarteche, 2022. "Electric vehicle deployment & fossil fuel tax revenue in Mexico to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:171:y:2022:i:c:s0301421522004955
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113276
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421522004955
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113276?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ashley Nunes & Lucas Woodley & Philip Rossetti, 2022. "Re-thinking procurement incentives for electric vehicles to achieve net-zero emissions," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 527-532, June.
    2. Orlando Reyes. & Roberto Escalante. & Anna Matas., 2010. "La demanda de gasolinas en México: Efectos y alternativas ante el cambio climático," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 32(1), pages 83-111, Enero-Jun.
    3. Bishop, Justin D.K. & Axon, Colin J. & Bonilla, David & Banister, David, 2016. "Estimating the grid payments necessary to compensate additional costs to prospective electric vehicle owners who provide vehicle-to-grid ancillary services," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 715-727.
    4. Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 2000. "The future mobility of the world population," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 171-205, April.
    5. Martino Tran & David Banister & Justin D. K. Bishop & Malcolm D. McCulloch, 2012. "Realizing the electric-vehicle revolution," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 328-333, May.
    6. Bonilla, David & Schmitz, Klaus E. & Akisawa, Atsushi, 2012. "Demand for mini cars and large cars; decay effects, and gasoline demand in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 217-227.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leslie Cardoza Cedillo & Michelle Montoya & Mónica Jaldón & Ma Guadalupe Paredes, 2023. "GHG Emission Accounting and Reduction Strategies in the Academic Sector: A Case Study in Mexico," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kverndokk, Snorre & Figenbaum, Erik & Hovi, Jon, 2020. "Would my driving pattern change if my neighbor were to buy an emission-free car?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Phil Goodwin & Kurt Van Dender, 2013. "'Peak Car' - Themes and Issues," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 243-254, May.
    3. Reza Fachrizal & Joakim Munkhammar, 2020. "Improved Photovoltaic Self-Consumption in Residential Buildings with Distributed and Centralized Smart Charging of Electric Vehicles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, March.
    4. Elena Higueras-Castillo & Sebastian Molinillo & J. Andres Coca-Stefaniak & Francisco Liébana-Cabanillas, 2020. "Potential Early Adopters of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in Spain—Towards a Customer Profile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Tattini, Jacopo & Ramea, Kalai & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Yang, Christopher & Mulholland, Eamonn & Yeh, Sonia & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models – The MoCho-TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 265-282.
    6. Poumanyvong, Phetkeo & Kaneko, Shinji & Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2012. "Impacts of urbanization on national transport and road energy use: Evidence from low, middle and high income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 268-277.
    7. Souche, Stéphanie, 2009. "Un exemple d’estimation de la demande de transport urbain," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Editions NecPlus, vol. 2009(04), pages 759-779, December.
    8. Fachrizal, Reza & Shepero, Mahmoud & Åberg, Magnus & Munkhammar, Joakim, 2022. "Optimal PV-EV sizing at solar powered workplace charging stations with smart charging schemes considering self-consumption and self-sufficiency balance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    9. Longden, Thomas, 2016. "The Regularity and Irregularity of Travel: an Analysis of the Consistency of Travel Times Associated with Subsistence, Maintenance and Discretionary Activities," ET: Economic Theory 243150, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    10. Selima Sultana & Hyojin Kim & Nastaran Pourebrahim & Firoozeh Karimi, 2018. "Geographical Assessment of Low-Carbon Transportation Modes: A Case Study from a Commuter University," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-23, August.
    11. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Lipson, Matthew M. & Chard, Rose, 2019. "Temporality, vulnerability, and energy justice in household low carbon innovations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 495-504.
    12. Yves Crozet & Iragaël Joly, 2004. "Travel Time Budgets: Facing the paradoxical management of the "scarcest good" [Budgets temps de transport : les sociétés tertiaires confrontées à la gestion paradoxale du " bien le p," Post-Print halshs-00068933, HAL.
    13. Humpe, Andreas & Gössling, Stefan & Haustein, Sonja, 2022. "Car careers: A socio-psychological evaluation of aspirational automobile ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 156-166.
    14. Jia, Wenjian & Jiang, Zhiqiu & Wang, Qian & Xu, Bin & Xiao, Mei, 2023. "Preferences for zero-emission vehicle attributes: Comparing early adopters with mainstream consumers in California," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 21-32.
    15. Clewlow, Regina R. & Sussman, Joseph M. & Balakrishnan, Hamsa, 2014. "The impact of high-speed rail and low-cost carriers on European air passenger traffic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 136-143.
    16. Nunes, Pedro & Brito, M.C., 2017. "Displacing natural gas with electric vehicles for grid stabilization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 87-96.
    17. Yue Ren & Xin Sun & Paul Wolfram & Shaoqiong Zhao & Xu Tang & Yifei Kang & Dongchang Zhao & Xinzhu Zheng, 2023. "Hidden delays of climate mitigation benefits in the race for electric vehicle deployment," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    18. Ülengin, Füsun & Önsel, Sule & Ilker Topçu, Y. & Aktas, Emel & Kabak, Özgür, 2007. "An integrated transportation decision support system for transportation policy decisions: The case of Turkey," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 80-97, January.
    19. Peeters, Paul & Dubois, Ghislain, 2010. "Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 447-457.
    20. Gerben Bakker, 2021. "Infrastructure killed the electric car," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 947-948, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:171:y:2022:i:c:s0301421522004955. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.