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Re-thinking procurement incentives for electric vehicles to achieve net-zero emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Ashley Nunes

    (R Street Institute
    Harvard Law School
    Harvard College)

  • Lucas Woodley

    (R Street Institute
    Harvard College)

  • Philip Rossetti

    (R Street Institute)

Abstract

Procurement incentives are a widely leveraged policy lever to stimulate electric vehicle (EV) sales. However, their effectiveness in reducing transportation emissions depends on the behavioural characteristics of EV adopters. When an EV is used, under what conditions and by whom dictates whether or not these vehicles can deliver emissions reductions. Here, we document that replacing gasoline powered vehicles with EVs may—depending on behavioural characteristics—increase, not decrease, emissions. We further show that counterfactual vehicle inventory—how many vehicles a household would own absent an EV purchase—is an important influencer of these effects. We conclude that achieving emissions reductions using EVs requires redesigning procurement incentive programmes in a manner that (re)distributes incentives towards the second-hand EV market. Doing so would not only facilitate emissions reductions but also address fiscal prudency and regressivity concerns associated with these programmes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashley Nunes & Lucas Woodley & Philip Rossetti, 2022. "Re-thinking procurement incentives for electric vehicles to achieve net-zero emissions," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 527-532, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:5:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1038_s41893-022-00862-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00862-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jia, Wenjian & Jiang, Zhiqiu & Wang, Qian & Xu, Bin & Xiao, Mei, 2023. "Preferences for zero-emission vehicle attributes: Comparing early adopters with mainstream consumers in California," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 21-32.
    2. Bonilla, David & Arias Soberon, Héctor & Galarza, Oscar Ugarteche, 2022. "Electric vehicle deployment & fossil fuel tax revenue in Mexico to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    3. Huibing Cheng & Shanshui Zheng, 2022. "Incentive Compensation Mechanism for the Infrastructure Construction of Electric Vehicle Battery Swapping Station under Asymmetric Information," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Yue Ren & Xin Sun & Paul Wolfram & Shaoqiong Zhao & Xu Tang & Yifei Kang & Dongchang Zhao & Xinzhu Zheng, 2023. "Hidden delays of climate mitigation benefits in the race for electric vehicle deployment," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Chunbo Zhang & Xiang Zhao & Romain Sacchi & Fengqi You, 2023. "Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.

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