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Measuring the Brazilian ethanol and gasoline market efficiency using DFA-Hurst and fractal dimension

Author

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  • David, S.A.
  • Inácio, C.M.C.
  • Quintino, D.D.
  • Machado, J.A.T.

Abstract

The ethanol and petroleum represent important energy commodities. Brazil is one of the world's largest producers of ethanol and became one of the ten largest global oil explorers in 2018. This paper proposes the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), Hurst exponent (H) and fractal dimension (D) to investigate the dynamic behavior of ethanol and gasoline prices series in Brazil. Furthermore, a new market efficiency measure, namely the Efficiency Index (EI), is also proposed. Some on-going change toward a more efficient market in the follow-up of an institutional political change is analyzed. The data series are obtained from the National Agency of Petroleum and the Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP). Weekly spot prices are used for time windows covering two periods. The first period (P1) precedes the Brazilian presidential impeachment occurred in 2016 and includes data from January/2011 to December/2015. The second (P2) addresses the period from July/2016 to July/2018, covering the post-impeachment scenario, with new government policies in the energy sector. The results indicate a subtle path toward market efficiency for the ethanol and a clear moving toward better efficiency for the gasoline market after changes in the fuel policy of Brazil. Moreover, the H and D indices prove to be useful tools for tackling the price dynamics of the fuel market, and to build the new measure EI.

Suggested Citation

  • David, S.A. & Inácio, C.M.C. & Quintino, D.D. & Machado, J.A.T., 2020. "Measuring the Brazilian ethanol and gasoline market efficiency using DFA-Hurst and fractal dimension," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:85:y:2020:i:c:s0140988319304098
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104614
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    3. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2021. "The effect of COVID-19 on long memory in returns and volatility of cryptocurrency and stock markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Derick Quintino & José Telo da Gama & Paulo Ferreira, 2021. "Cross-Correlations in Meat Prices in Brazil: A Non-Linear Approach Using Different Time Scales," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-12, September.
    5. Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Meira, Erick & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus, 2022. "The sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil: Exploring the pass-through of international commodity prices to national fuel prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Alaba, Oluwayemisi O. & Ojo, Oluwadare O. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Abu, Nurudeen & Ajobo, Saheed A., 2021. "Comparative Analysis of Market Efficiency and Volatility of Energy Prices Before and During COVID-19 Pandemic Periods," MPRA Paper 109825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    8. Derick David Quintino & Heloisa Lee Burnquist & Paulo Jorge Silveira Ferreira, 2021. "Carbon Emissions and Brazilian Ethanol Prices: Are They Correlated? An Econophysics Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fuel prices policy; Energy; Fractional modelling; Fractal dimension;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics

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