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Analysis of the Relationship between Ethanol Spot and Futures Prices in Brazil

Author

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  • Derick D. Quintino

    (Department of Economics, Administration and Sociology, University of São Paulo, 13418-900 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil)

  • Sergio A. David

    (Department of Biosystems Engineering, University of São Paulo, 13635-900 Pirassununga, SP, Brazil)

  • Carlos E. de F. Vian

    (Department of Economics, Administration and Sociology, University of São Paulo, 13418-900 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil)

Abstract

In this work, an investigation and analysis are carried out in order to observe the relationship between ethanol spot and futures prices in Brazil. We adopted the Engle and Granger co-integration approach. Also, we consider the information share method proposed by Hasbrouck in order to examine the market efficiency in price discovery and information transmission. Results show that although the futures market is efficient in price discovery and information transmission, the cash market leads the long-run price discovery process. This suggests that the underlying cause of the dominance of the available market over the futures market can be attributed to the market’s relative concentration in wholesale ethanol distribution due to the formation of marketing pools by the ethanol mills, as well as the small number of distributors that control a significant portion of the market share.

Suggested Citation

  • Derick D. Quintino & Sergio A. David & Carlos E. de F. Vian, 2017. "Analysis of the Relationship between Ethanol Spot and Futures Prices in Brazil," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-10, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:5:y:2017:i:2:p:11-:d:94785
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    2. Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & José Gil, 2011. "Price volatility in ethanol markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 38(2), pages 259-280, June.
    3. Timmermann, Allan & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 15-27.
    4. Deborah Bentivoglio & Adele Finco & Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi, 2016. "Interdependencies between Biofuel, Fuel and Food Prices: The Case of the Brazilian Ethanol Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    5. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Diks, Cees G.H., 2008. "The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2673-2685, September.
    6. Ling‐Yun He & Wen‐Si Xie, 2012. "Who has the final say?," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 379-390, August.
    7. Quintino, Derick David & David, Sergio Adriani, 2013. "Quantitative analysis of feasibility of hydrous ethanol futures contracts in Brazil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 927-935.
    8. Mattos, Fabio & Garcia, Philip, 2004. "Price Discovery In Thinly Traded Markets: Cash And Futures Relationships In Brazilian Agricultural Futures Markets," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19019, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
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    Cited by:

    1. David, S.A. & Inácio, C.M.C. & Quintino, D.D. & Machado, J.A.T., 2020. "Measuring the Brazilian ethanol and gasoline market efficiency using DFA-Hurst and fractal dimension," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Sergio Adriani David & Claudio M. C. Inácio & José A. Tenreiro Machado, 2019. "Ethanol Prices and Agricultural Commodities: An Investigation of Their Relationship," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-25, August.
    3. David, S.A. & Inácio Jr., C.M.C. & Tenreiro Machado, José A., 2021. "The recovery of global stock markets indices after impacts due to pandemics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Rafael Baptista Palazzi & Ata Assaf & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle, 2024. "Dynamic connectedness between energy markets and the Brazilian cash market: An empirical analysis pre‐ and post‐COVID‐19," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 27-56, January.
    5. Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Meira, Erick & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus, 2022. "The sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil: Exploring the pass-through of international commodity prices to national fuel prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Derick David Quintino & Heloisa Lee Burnquist & Paulo Jorge Silveira Ferreira, 2021. "Carbon Emissions and Brazilian Ethanol Prices: Are They Correlated? An Econophysics Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.

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