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Price Discovery and Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers in Indian Spot-Futures Gold Markets

Author

Listed:
  • P. Srinivasan

    (Department of Economics, Christ University, Hosur Road, Bangalore 560029, Karnataka, India)

  • P. Ibrahim

    (Department of Economics, Pondicherry University, Kalapet, Pondicherry, India)

Abstract

This study attempts to examine the price discovery process and volatility spillovers in Gold futures and spot markets of National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) by employing Johansen’s Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Bivariate ECM-EGARCH(1,1) model. The empirical result confirms that the spot market of Gold plays a dominant role and serves as effective price discovery vehicle. Besides the study results show that the spillovers of certain information take place from spot market to futures market and the spot market of gold have the capability to expose the all new information through the channel of its new innovation.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Srinivasan & P. Ibrahim, 2012. "Price Discovery and Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers in Indian Spot-Futures Gold Markets," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 5(3), pages 65-80, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:5:y:2012:i:3:p:65-80
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    2. Eleftherios Giovanis, 2014. "The Turn-of-the-Month-Effect: Evidence from Periodic Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (PGARCH) Model," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(3), pages 43-61, December.
    3. Muneer Shaik & Abhiram Kartik Lanka & Gurmeet Singh, 2021. "Analysis of lead-lag relationship and volatility spillover: evidence from Indian agriculture commodity markets," International Journal of Bonds and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 258-279.
    4. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2016. "Impact of Global Financial Crisis and Implied Volatility in the Equity Market on Gold Futures Traded on Multi Commodity Exchange, India," MPRA Paper 72966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Burggraf, Tobias & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2020. "Financialisation of natural resources & instability caused by risk transfer in commodity markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Talbi, Marwa & de Peretti, Christian & Belkacem, Lotfi, 2020. "Dynamics and causality in distribution between spot and future precious metals: A copula approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Sanjay Sehgal & Wasim Ahmad & Florent Deisting, 2015. "An investigation of price discovery and volatility spillovers in India’s foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(2), pages 261-284, May.
    8. Sarveshwar Kumar Inani, 2018. "Price Discovery and Efficiency of Indian Agricultural Commodity Futures Market: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 129-154, March.
    9. A.N. Vijayakumar, 2023. "Declining trade interest in Indian commodity derivatives: a survey-based study on cardamom futures contract," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 28(3), pages 333-346.
    10. Isita Mukherjee & Bhaskar Goswami, 2017. "The volatility of returns from commodity futures: evidence from India," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, December.
    11. S. Maria Immanuvel & D. Lazar, 2023. "Does Information Spillover and Leverage Effect Exist in World Gold Markets?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 475-487, June.
    12. Narjiss Araba & Alain François-Heude, 2019. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the French wheat market," Post-Print hal-03088859, HAL.
    13. Muneesh Kumar & Tarunika Jain Agrawal & Srishti Sehgal, 2017. "Domestic and International Information Linkages for Indian Commodities Market in the Pre- and Post-CTT Periods," Metamorphosis: A Journal of Management Research, , vol. 16(2), pages 75-91, December.
    14. Meenakshi Malhotra & Dinesh Kumar Sharma, 2016. "Volatility Dynamics in Oil and Oilseeds Spot and Futures Market in India," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 41(2), pages 132-148, June.
    15. Hachmi Ben Ameur & Zied Ftiti & Waël Louhichi, 2022. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures markets: evidence from commodity markets and NARDL framework," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 171-189, June.
    16. Wei, Jiangqiao & Ma, Zhe & Wang, Anjian & Li, Pengyuan & Sun, Xiaoyan & Yuan, Xiaojing & Hao, Hongchang & Jia, Hongxiang, 2022. "Multiscale nonlinear Granger causality and time-varying effect analysis of the relationship between iron ore futures and spot prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Mala Dutt & Sanjay Sehgal, 2018. "Domestic and International Information Linkages between Gold Spot and Futures Markets: An Empirical Study for India," Metamorphosis: A Journal of Management Research, , vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price Discovery; Asymmetric Volatility Spillover; Cointegration; VECM; EGARCH Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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