Price volatility in ethanol markets
AbstractOur paper looks at how price volatility in the Brazilian ethanol industry changes over time and across markets by using a new methodological approach suggested by Seo (2007). The main advantage of Seo’s proposal over previously existing methods is that it allows to jointly estimate the cointegration relationship between the price series investigated and the multivariate GARCH process. Our results suggest that crude oil prices not only influence ethanol price levels, but also their volatility. Increased volatility in crude oil markets results in increased volatility in ethanol markets. Ethanol prices, on the other hand, influence sugar price levels and an increase in their volatility levels also impacts, though less strongly, on sugar markets.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin with number 49188.
Date of creation: 2009
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volatility; ethanol; GARCH; cointegration; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; C32;
Other versions of this item:
- Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2009. "Price volatility in ethanol markets," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 49940, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
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