Chinese institutional investors' sentiment
AbstractWe use daily survey data on Chinese institutional investors' forecasts to measure investors' sentiment. Our empirical model uncovers that share prices and investor sentiment do not have a long-run relation; however, in the short-run, the mood of investors follows a positive-feedback process. Hence, institutional investors are optimistic when previous market returns were positive. Contrarily, negative returns trigger a decline in sentiment, which reacts more sensitively to negative than positive returns. Investor sentiment does not predict future market movements--but a drop in confidence increases market volatility and destabilizes exchanges. EGARCH models reveal asymmetric responses in the volatility of investor sentiment; however, Granger causality tests reject volatility-spillovers between returns and sentiment.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.
Volume (Year): 18 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin
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