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Chinese institutional investors' sentiment

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  • Kling, Gerhard
  • Gao, Lei

Abstract

We use daily survey data on Chinese institutional investors' forecasts to measure investors' sentiment. Our empirical model uncovers that share prices and investor sentiment do not have a long-run relation; however, in the short-run, the mood of investors follows a positive-feedback process. Hence, institutional investors are optimistic when previous market returns were positive. Contrarily, negative returns trigger a decline in sentiment, which reacts more sensitively to negative than positive returns. Investor sentiment does not predict future market movements--but a drop in confidence increases market volatility and destabilizes exchanges. EGARCH models reveal asymmetric responses in the volatility of investor sentiment; however, Granger causality tests reject volatility-spillovers between returns and sentiment.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Volume (Year): 18 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 374-387

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:18:y:2008:i:4:p:374-387

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dergiades, Theologos, 2011. "Do Investors' Sentiment Dynamics affect Stock Returns? Evidence from the US Economy," MPRA Paper 51128, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Nov 2011.
  2. Thomas Lux, 2008. "Sentiment Dynamics and Stock Returns: The Case of the German Stock Market," Kiel Working Papers 1470, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Lux, Thomas, 2012. "Estimation of an agent-based model of investor sentiment formation in financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1284-1302.
  4. Lei Gao & Gerhard Kling, 2005. "Calendar Effects in Chinese Stock Market," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 75-88, May.
  5. Thomas Lux, 2009. "Mass Psychology in Action: Identification of Social Interaction Effects in the German Stock Market," Kiel Working Papers 1514, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Singer, Nico & Dreher, Frank & Laser, Saskia, 2012. "Published stock recommendations as institutional investor sentiment in the near-term stock market," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 121, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
  7. Michael Schuppli & Martin T. Bohl, 2009. "Do Foreign Institutional Investors Destabilize China’s A-Share Markets?," CQE Working Papers 0909, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  8. Thomas Lux, 2011. "Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 663-679, December.
  9. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Gu, Rongbao, 2009. "Analysis of efficiency for Shenzhen stock market based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 271-276, December.

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