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Chinese institutional investors' sentiment

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  • Kling, Gerhard
  • Gao, Lei

Abstract

We use daily survey data on Chinese institutional investors' forecasts to measure investors' sentiment. Our empirical model uncovers that share prices and investor sentiment do not have a long-run relation; however, in the short-run, the mood of investors follows a positive-feedback process. Hence, institutional investors are optimistic when previous market returns were positive. Contrarily, negative returns trigger a decline in sentiment, which reacts more sensitively to negative than positive returns. Investor sentiment does not predict future market movements--but a drop in confidence increases market volatility and destabilizes exchanges. EGARCH models reveal asymmetric responses in the volatility of investor sentiment; however, Granger causality tests reject volatility-spillovers between returns and sentiment.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Volume (Year): 18 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 374-387

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:18:y:2008:i:4:p:374-387

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lei Gao & Gerhard Kling, 2005. "Calendar Effects in Chinese Stock Market," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 75-88, May.
  2. Singer, Nico & Dreher, Frank & Laser, Saskia, 2012. "Published stock recommendations as institutional investor sentiment in the near-term stock market," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 121, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
  3. Thomas Lux, 2009. "Mass Psychology in Action: Identification of Social Interaction Effects in the German Stock Market," Kiel Working Papers 1514, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Gu, Rongbao, 2009. "Analysis of efficiency for Shenzhen stock market based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 271-276, December.
  5. Theologos Dergiades, 2012. "Do Investors' Sentiment Dynamics affect Stock Returns? Evidence from the US Economy," Discussion Paper Series 2012_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2012.
  6. Lux, Thomas, 2012. "Estimation of an agent-based model of investor sentiment formation in financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1284-1302.
  7. Michael Schuppli & Martin T. Bohl, 2009. "Do Foreign Institutional Investors Destabilize China’s A-Share Markets?," CQE Working Papers 0909, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  8. Thomas Lux, 2011. "Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 663-679, December.
  9. Nico Singer & Saskia Laser & Frank Dreher, 2013. "Published stock recommendations as investor sentiment in the near-term stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1233-1249, December.
  10. Thomas Lux, 2008. "Sentiment Dynamics and Stock Returns: The Case of the German Stock Market," Kiel Working Papers 1470, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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