IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v291y2021i2p512-524.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determining concession periods and minimum revenue guarantees in public-private-partnership agreements

Author

Listed:
  • Jin, Hongyu
  • Liu, Shijing
  • Sun, Jide
  • Liu, Chunlu

Abstract

Public–private partnership (PPP) schemes show strong capability in delivering infrastructure projects. One challenge in designing PPP contracts is optimising the length of the concession period and level of the minimum revenue guarantee (MRG) to satisfy both public and private parties’ interests. Existing research excludes interaction between the concession period and MRG, but a method that can determine their values simultaneously is needed. This study fills the research gap by proposing a synthetic measure to determine the values of the concession period and MRG. An imperfect information bargaining model is created to find the equilibrium return rate on investment. To achieve the equilibrium of the bargaining game, the required length of the concession period and level of the MRG are calculated based on Monte Carlo simulation and real option analysis. Project QJ is created as a numerical example to verify the applicability of the proposed method. The outcome shows the proposed determination process identifies the optimal length of the concession period and level of the MRG. The length of the concession period is inversely proportional to the level of the MRG and this correlation is influenced by the probability of achieving the equilibrium return rate on investment. When this probability equals 70%, an MRG is not required once the concession period exceeds 24 years. The results also show the concession period decision range is sensitive to change in the concession price.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Hongyu & Liu, Shijing & Sun, Jide & Liu, Chunlu, 2021. "Determining concession periods and minimum revenue guarantees in public-private-partnership agreements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(2), pages 512-524.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:291:y:2021:i:2:p:512-524
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.12.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221719310148
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.12.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Faruk Buyukyoran & Selin Gundes, 2018. "Optimized real options-based approach for government guarantees in PPP toll road projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 203-216, April.
    2. Arnold, Uwe & Yildiz, Özgür, 2015. "Economic risk analysis of decentralized renewable energy infrastructures – A Monte Carlo Simulation approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 227-239.
    3. Zhi Wang & Huan Tan & Jing Wang & Chunyan Hu, 2015. "Concession Period Decision Models for Public Infrastructure Projects Based on Option Games," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2015, pages 1-9, October.
    4. Tan, Zhijia & Yang, Hai, 2012. "Flexible build-operate-transfer contracts for road franchising under demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1419-1439.
    5. Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & Ronald D. Fischer & Alexander Galetovic, 2001. "Least-Present-Value-of-Revenue Auctions and Highway Franchising," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 993-1020, October.
    6. Scandizzo, Pasquale L. & Ventura, Marco, 2010. "Sharing risk through concession contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 363-370, November.
    7. Nunzia Carbonara & Nicola Costantino & Roberta Pellegrino, 2014. "Revenue guarantee in public-private partnerships: a fair risk allocation model," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 403-415, April.
    8. Qiu, Larry D. & Wang, Susheng, 2011. "BOT projects: Incentives and efficiency," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 127-138, January.
    9. Guofeng Ma & Qingjuan Du & Kedi Wang, 2018. "A Concession Period and Price Determination Model for PPP Projects: Based on Real Options and Risk Allocation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, March.
    10. Nombela, Gustavo & de Rus, Ginés, 2004. "Flexible-term contracts for road franchising," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 163-179, March.
    11. Hatice Çiğdem Demirel & Wim Leendertse & Leentje Volker & Marcel Hertogh, 2017. "Flexibility in PPP contracts – Dealing with potential change in the pre-contract phase of a construction project," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 196-206, April.
    12. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    13. Niu, Baozhuang & Zhang, Jie, 2013. "Price, capacity and concession period decisions of Pareto-efficient BOT contracts with demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Gu, Yan & Cai, Xingju & Han, Deren & Wang, David Z.W., 2019. "A tri-level optimization model for a private road competition problem with traffic equilibrium constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(1), pages 190-197.
    15. Eriksen, Knut Sandberg & Jensen, Svenn, 2010. "The cost of second best pricing and the value of risk premium," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 29-37.
    16. Lukas, Elmar & Thiergart, Sascha, 2019. "The interaction of debt financing, cash grants and the optimal investment policy under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(1), pages 284-299.
    17. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Chin Te Liu & Ruilin Zhou, 2002. "When can we forecast inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 26(Q I), pages 32-44.
    18. Luiz Eduardo Brandao & Eduardo Saraiva, 2008. "The option value of government guarantees in infrastructure projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(11), pages 1171-1180.
    19. Yu-Lin Huang & Shih-Pei Chou, 2006. "Valuation of the minimum revenue guarantee and the option to abandon in BOT infrastructure projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 379-389.
    20. José M. Vassallo, 2006. "Traffic Risk Mitigation in Highway Concession Projects: The Experience of Chile," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 40(3), pages 359-381, September.
    21. Hinojosa, Sergio & Gomez-Lobo, Andres, 2000. "Broad roads in a thin country - infrastructure concessions in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2279, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Feng, Zhuo & Song, Jinbo & Yang, Xiaoxing & Guo, Ran, 2023. "Contractual flexibility, firm effort, and subsidy design: A comparison of PPP project contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 484-496.
    2. Mochon, Pablo & Mochon, Asuncion & Saez, Yago, 2022. "Combinatorial versus sequential auctions to allocate PPP highway projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 23-39.
    3. Mahavadi Dhanshyam & Samir K. Srivastava, 2021. "Governance structures for public infrastructure projects: Public–private management regimes, contractual forms and innovation," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(8), pages 652-668, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Buso & Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2021. "Do exit options increase the value for money of public–private partnerships?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 721-742, November.
    2. Meng, Qiang & Lu, Zhaoyang, 2017. "Quantitative analyses of highway franchising under build-operate-transfer scheme: Critical review and future research directions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 105-123.
    3. Marco Buso & Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2018. "Termination Fees and Contract Design in Public-Private Partnerships," Working Papers 2018.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Zhao, Yunpeng & Song, Jinbo & Feng, Zhuo & Jin, Lulu, 2023. "Incentive contracts with demand guarantee in BOT toll road projects," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Feng, Zhuo & Song, Jinbo & Yang, Xiaoxing & Guo, Ran, 2023. "Contractual flexibility, firm effort, and subsidy design: A comparison of PPP project contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 484-496.
    6. Shi, Shasha & An, Qingxian & Chen, Ke, 2020. "Optimal choice of capacity, toll, and subsidy for build-operate-transfer roads with a paid minimum traffic guarantee," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 228-254.
    7. Li, Shuai & Cai, Hubo, 2017. "Government incentive impacts on private investment behaviors under demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 115-129.
    8. Zhang, Yiwen & Feng, Zhuo & Zhang, Shuibo, 2018. "The effects of concession period structures on BOT road contracts," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 106-125.
    9. Silaghi, Florina & Sarkar, Sudipto, 2021. "Agency problems in public-private partnerships investment projects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(3), pages 1174-1191.
    10. Feng, Zhuo & Zhang, Shui-Bo & Gao, Ying, 2015. "Modeling the impact of government guarantees on toll charge, road quality and capacity for Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) road projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-67.
    11. Feng, Zhuo & Zhang, Shui-Bo & Gao, Ying & Zhang, Shuai-Jun, 2016. "Subsidizing and pricing private toll roads with noncontractible service quality: A relational contract approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 466-491.
    12. Wang, Grace W.Y. & Pallis, Athanasios A., 2014. "Incentive approaches to overcome moral hazard in port concession agreements," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 162-174.
    13. Wang, Wei (Walker) & Jin, Xi & Tan, Zhijia & Sun, Huijun & Wu, Jianjun, 2022. "Modeling the effects of government subsidy and regulation on BOT transport project contract design within contractible service quality," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    14. Shi, Shasha & Yin, Yafeng & An, Qingxian & Chen, Ke, 2021. "Optimal build-operate-transfer road contracts under information asymmetry and uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 65-86.
    15. Feng, Zhuo & Zhang, Yiwen & Zhang, Shuibo & Song, Jinbo, 2018. "Contracting and renegotiating with a loss-averse private firm in BOT road projects," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 40-72.
    16. Ales S. Berk & Dejan Podhraski, 2018. "Superiority of Monte Carlo simulation in valuing real options within public–private partnerships," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, February.
    17. Hoang-Tung, Nguyen & Viet Hung, Do & Kato, Hironori & Binh, Phan Le, 2021. "Modeling ceiling price for build-operate-transfer road projects in developing countries," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    18. Jiangang Shi & Kaifeng Duan & Guangdong Wu & Rui Zhang & Xiaowei Feng, 2020. "Comprehensive metrological and content analysis of the public–private partnerships (PPPs) research field: a new bibliometric journey," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(3), pages 2145-2184, September.
    19. Kangsoo Kim & Hyejin Cho & Donghyung Yook, 2019. "Financing for a Sustainable PPP Development: Valuation of the Contractual Rights under Exercise Conditions for an Urban Railway PPP Project in Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, March.
    20. Albalate, Daniel & Bel, Germà, 2009. "Regulating concessions of toll motorways: An empirical study on fixed vs. variable term contracts," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 219-229, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:291:y:2021:i:2:p:512-524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.