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Do parties matter? Estimating the effect of political power in multi-party systems

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  • Freier, Ronny
  • Odendahl, Christian

Abstract

When there are more than two parties, policy outcomes are typically the result of a bargaining process. We investigate whether changes in political power for various parties have an effect on tax policies. We use an instrumental variable approach where close elections provide the exogenous variation in our variable of interest: voting power. In order to isolate close elections in a proportional election system, we develop a new simulation algorithm. Using data from German municipalities in the state of Bavaria, our estimation results suggest that political power does matter for policies. Somewhat surprisingly, the center-left party SPD is found to lower all three locally controlled taxes, whereas The Greens increase both property taxes considerably. These results remain robust across a range of specifications. Our partisan effect for the SPD is also confirmed by a simple regression discontinuity estimation using mayoral elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Freier, Ronny & Odendahl, Christian, 2015. "Do parties matter? Estimating the effect of political power in multi-party systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 310-328.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:80:y:2015:i:c:p:310-328
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.09.011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Local taxation; Local election; Municipality data; Instrumental variable approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

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