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Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models

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  • Dueker, Michael J.
  • Psaradakis, Zacharias
  • Sola, Martin
  • Spagnolo, Fabio

Abstract

This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex-ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition function depends on all the parameters of the model as well as on the data. Since the mixing weights are also a function of the regime-specific noise covariance matrix, the model can account for contemporaneous regime-specific co-movements of the variables. The stability and distributional properties of the proposed model are discussed, as well as issues of estimation, testing and forecasting. The practical usefulness of the C-MSTAR model is illustrated by examining the relationship between US stock prices and interest rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 160 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 311-325

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:160:y:2011:i:2:p:311-325

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

Related research

Keywords: Nonlinear autoregressive model Smooth transition Stability Threshold;

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  1. Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek & Neil Shephard, 2008. "The ACR Model: A Multivariate Dynamic Mixture Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 583-618, October.
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  3. Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628.
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  15. Harvill, Jane L. & Ray, Bonnie K., 2006. "Functional coefficient autoregressive models for vector time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(12), pages 3547-3566, August.
  16. Eckhard Liebscher, 2005. "Towards a Unified Approach for Proving Geometric Ergodicity and Mixing Properties of Nonlinear Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 669-689, 09.
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