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Something will turn up? Financial over-optimism and mortgage arrears

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  • Dawson, Chris
  • Henley, Andrew

Abstract

This paper investigates the association between unrealised financial expectations (over-optimism) and subsequent mortgage repayment difficulties, using British longitudinal data. Evidence is provided that an increased probability of mortgage payment difficulties post committal is associated with over-optimism prior to new mortgage advances.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 117 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 49-52

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:1:p:49-52

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

Related research

Keywords: Financial optimism; Expectations; Mortgage arrears;

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References

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  1. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2006. "Financial Expectations, Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis," Working Papers 2006006, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2006.
  2. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, 04.
  3. Richard Disney & Sarah Bridges & John Gathergood, 2010. "House Price Shocks and Household Indebtedness in the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(307), pages 472-496, 07.
  4. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Gaia Garino & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2003. "Debt and financial expectations: an individual and household level analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics 03/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Feb 2004.
  5. Madsen, Jakob Brochner, 1994. "Tests of rationality versus an "over optimist" bias," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 587-599, December.
  6. G. Reza Arabsheibani & David de Meza & John Maloney & Bernard Pearson, 2000. "And a Vision Appeared unto them of a Great Profit: Evidence of Self-Deception among the Self-Employed," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 99/9, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Feb 2000.
  7. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7986, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Sarah Bridges & Richard Disney, 2004. "Use of credit and arrears on debt among low-income families in the United Kingdom," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 1-25, March.
  9. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
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