IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v53y2016icp63-74.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring systemic risk using vine-copula

Author

Listed:
  • Pourkhanali, Armin
  • Kim, Jong-Min
  • Tafakori, Laleh
  • Fard, Farzad Alavi

Abstract

We present an intuitive model of systemic risk to analyse the complex interdependencies between different borrowers. We characterise systemic risk by the way that financial institutions are interconnected. Using their probability of default, we classify different international financial institutions into five rating groups. Then we use the state-of-the-art canonical (C-) and D-vine copulae to investigate the partial correlation structure between the rating groups. Amongst many interesting findings, we discover that the second tier financial institutions pay a larger contribution to the systemic risk than the top tier borrowers. Further, we discuss an application of our methodology for pricing credit derivative swaps.

Suggested Citation

  • Pourkhanali, Armin & Kim, Jong-Min & Tafakori, Laleh & Fard, Farzad Alavi, 2016. "Measuring systemic risk using vine-copula," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 63-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:53:y:2016:i:c:p:63-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.11.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999315003661
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.11.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Jianli & Liu, Zhen & Li, Shenghong, 2014. "Mixed copula model with stochastic correlation for CDO pricing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 167-174.
    2. Darrell Duffie & Andreas Eckner & Guillaume Horel & Leandro Saita, 2009. "Frailty Correlated Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2089-2123, October.
    3. Nguyen, Cuong C. & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2012. "Copula model dependency between oil prices and stock markets: Evidence from China and Vietnam," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 758-773.
    4. Stefano Giglio, 2011. "Credit default swap spreads and systemic financial risk," Proceedings 1122, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Cooke, R.M. & Kurowicka, D. & Wilson, K., 2015. "Sampling, conditionalizing, counting, merging, searching regular vines," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 4-18.
    6. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    7. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November.
    8. Brechmann, Eike C. & Joe, Harry, 2014. "Parsimonious parameterization of correlation matrices using truncated vines and factor analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 233-251.
    9. Andrea Buraschi & Paolo Porchia & Fabio Trojani, 2010. "Correlation Risk and Optimal Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 393-420, February.
    10. Ines Fortin & Christoph Kuzmics, 2002. "Tail‐dependence in stock‐return pairs," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 89-107, April.
    11. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    12. Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Rangarajan K. Sundaram, 2000. "A Discrete-Time Approach to Arbitrage-Free Pricing of Credit Derivatives," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(1), pages 46-62, January.
    13. Rahul Kaushik & Stefano Battiston, "undated". "Credit Default Swaps Drawup Networks: Too Tied To Be Stable?," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-013, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    14. R. J. Elliott & M. Jeanblanc & M. Yor, 2000. "On Models of Default Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 179-195, April.
    15. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    16. Hua Chen & J. David Cummins & Krupa S. Viswanathan & Mary A. Weiss, 2014. "Systemic Risk and the Interconnectedness Between Banks and Insurers: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(3), pages 623-652, September.
    17. Mansor, F. & Bhatti, M.I. & Ariff, M., 2015. "New evidence on the impact of fees on mutual fund performance of two types of funds," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 102-115.
    18. Bhatti, M. Ishaq & Nguyen, Cuong C., 2012. "Diversification evidence from international equity markets using extreme values and stochastic copulas," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 622-646.
    19. Markose, Sheri & Giansante, Simone & Shaghaghi, Ali Rais, 2012. "‘Too interconnected to fail’ financial network of US CDS market: Topological fragility and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 627-646.
    20. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, February.
    21. Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
    22. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    23. Joe, Harry & Li, Haijun & Nikoloulopoulos, Aristidis K., 2010. "Tail dependence functions and vine copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 252-270, January.
    24. Kim, Jong-Min & Jung, Yoon-Sung & Choi, Taeryon & Sungur, Engin A., 2011. "Partial correlation with copula modeling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 1357-1366, March.
    25. Brechmann, Eike Christian & Schepsmeier, Ulf, 2013. "Modeling Dependence with C- and D-Vine Copulas: The R Package CDVine," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 52(i03).
    26. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    27. Brechmann, Eike C. & Hendrich, Katharina & Czado, Claudia, 2013. "Conditional copula simulation for systemic risk stress testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 722-732.
    28. Fenech, Jean Pierre & Vosgha, Hamed & Shafik, Salwa, 2015. "Loan default correlation using an Archimedean copula approach: A case for recalibration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 340-354.
    29. Naifar, Nader, 2012. "Modeling the dependence structure between default risk premium, equity return volatility and the jump risk: Evidence from a financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 119-131.
    30. Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Tail Dependence of Factor Models," Papers cond-mat/0202356, arXiv.org.
    31. Markus Junker & Angelika May, 2005. "Measurement of aggregate risk with copulas," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(3), pages 428-454, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuhao Liu & Petar M. Djurić & Young Shin Kim & Svetlozar T. Rachev & James Glimm, 2021. "Systemic Risk Modeling with Lévy Copulas," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Laleh Tafakori & Armin Pourkhanali & Riccardo Rastelli, 2022. "Measuring systemic risk and contagion in the European financial network," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 345-389, July.
    3. Kumar, Satish & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Raheem, Ibrahim Dolapo & Hille, Erik, 2021. "Time-varying dependence structure between oil and agricultural commodity markets: A dependence-switching CoVaR copula approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Nevrla, Matěj, 2020. "Systemic risk in European financial and energy sectors: Dynamic factor copula approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    5. Agosto, Arianna & Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo, 2020. "Tree networks to assess financial contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 349-366.
    6. Xiangwei Zhao & Qian Gao & Yaojie Yue & Lian Duan & Shun Pan, 2018. "A System Analysis on Steppe Sustainability and Its Driving Forces—A Case Study in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, January.
    7. Quanrui Song & Jianxu Liu & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2019. "Risk Measurement of Stock Markets in BRICS, G7, and G20: Vine Copulas versus Factor Copulas," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Linhai Zhao & Yingjie Li & Yenchun Jim Wu, 2022. "An Identification Algorithm of Systemically Important Financial Institutions Based on Adjacency Information Entropy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(4), pages 1735-1753, April.
    9. Popescu, Alexandra & Turcu, Camelia, 2017. "Sovereign debt and systemic risk in the eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 275-284.
    10. Jianxu Liu & Quanrui Song & Yang Qi & Sanzidur Rahman & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2020. "Measurement of Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets and Its Application in Forecasting Trading Decisions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-15, May.
    11. Bax, Karoline & Sahin, Özge & Czado, Claudia & Paterlini, Sandra, 2023. "ESG, risk, and (tail) dependence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    12. Adnan Safi & Xianrong Yi & Salman Wahab & Yingying Chen & Hassan Hassan, 2021. "CEO overconfidence, firm-specific factors, and systemic risk: evidence from China," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 30-47, June.
    13. Kjersti Aas, 2016. "Pair-Copula Constructions for Financial Applications: A Review," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-15, October.
    14. Kim, Jong-Min & Kim, Dong H. & Jung, Hojin, 2020. "Modeling non-normal corporate bond yield spreads by copula," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    15. Bukre Yildirim Kulekci & Gulden Poyraz & Ismail Gur & Ozan Evkaya, 2023. "Dependence Analysis of the ISE100 Banking Sector Using Vine Copula," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(73-1), pages 55-81, June.
    16. Manner, Hans & Alavi Fard, Farzad & Pourkhanali, Armin & Tafakori, Laleh, 2019. "Forecasting the joint distribution of Australian electricity prices using dynamic vine copulae," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 143-164.
    17. Mezei, József & Sarlin, Peter, 2018. "RiskRank: Measuring interconnected risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 41-50.
    18. Jiang, Cuixia & Li, Yuqian & Xu, Qifa & Liu, Yezheng, 2021. "Measuring risk spillovers from multiple developed stock markets to China: A vine-copula-GARCH-MIDAS model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 386-398.
    19. Dai, Xingyu & Wang, Qunwei & Zha, Donglan & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Multi-scale dependence structure and risk contagion between oil, gold, and US exchange rate: A wavelet-based vine-copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Mejdoub, Hanène & Ben Arab, Mounira, 2018. "Impact of dependence modeling of non-life insurance risks on capital requirement: D-Vine Copula approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 208-218.
    21. Yao, Yanzhen & Li, Jianping & Zhu, Xiaoqian & Wei, Lu, 2017. "Expected default based score for identifying systemically important banks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 589-600.
    22. Joshua Eklund & Jong-Min Kim, 2022. "Examining Factors That Affect Movie Gross Using Gaussian Copula Marginal Regression," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-14, July.
    23. Boako, Gideon & Alagidede, Paul, 2017. "Currency price risk and stock market returns in Africa: Dependence and downside spillover effects with stochastic copulas," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 92-114.
    24. Kumar, Satish & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Chauhan, Yogesh & Ji, Qiang, 2019. "Dependence structure between the BRICS foreign exchange and stock markets using the dependence-switching copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 273-284.
    25. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brechmann, Eike C. & Hendrich, Katharina & Czado, Claudia, 2013. "Conditional copula simulation for systemic risk stress testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 722-732.
    2. Koliai, Lyes, 2016. "Extreme risk modeling: An EVT–pair-copulas approach for financial stress tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-22.
    3. Meng-Jou Lu & Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen & Wolfgang Karl Hardle, 2020. "Copula-Based Factor Model for Credit Risk Analysis," Papers 2009.12092, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    4. Lu, Meng-Jou & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Härdle, Karl Wolfgang & Härdle, 2015. "Copula-Based Factor Model for Credit Risk Analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-042, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Peleg Lazar, Sharon & Raviv, Alon, 2019. "The risk spiral: The effects of bank capital and diversification on risk taking," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Bax, Karoline & Sahin, Özge & Czado, Claudia & Paterlini, Sandra, 2023. "ESG, risk, and (tail) dependence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Hayette Gatfaoui, 2010. "Investigating the dependence structure between credit default swap spreads and the U.S. financial market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 511-535, October.
    8. Pu, Xiaoling & Zhao, Xinlei, 2012. "Correlation in credit risk changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1093-1106.
    9. Grundke, Peter & Polle, Simone, 2012. "Crisis and risk dependencies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 518-528.
    10. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2017. "Equity market information and credit risk signaling: A quantile cointegrating regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 48-59.
    11. Wan†Chien Chiu & Juan Ignacio Peña & Chih†Wei Wang, 2015. "Measuring Systemic Risk: Common Factor Exposures and Tail Dependence Effects," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(5), pages 833-866, November.
    12. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    13. Gündüz, Yalin, 2020. "The market impact of systemic risk capital surcharges," Discussion Papers 09/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Baur, Dirk G., 2013. "The structure and degree of dependence: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 786-798.
    15. Meng-Jou Lu & Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2017. "Copula-based factor model for credit risk analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 949-971, November.
    16. Han, Xuyuan & Liu, Zhenya & Wang, Shixuan, 2022. "An R-vine copula analysis of non-ferrous metal futures with application in Value-at-Risk forecasting," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    17. Bethke, Sebastian & Kempf, Alexander & Trapp, Monika, 2014. "Investor sentiment, flight-to-quality, and corporate bond comovement," CFR Working Papers 13-06 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    18. Nguyen, Cuong & Bhatti, M. Ishaq & Komorníková, Magda & Komorník, Jozef, 2016. "Gold price and stock markets nexus under mixed-copulas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 283-292.
    19. Kellner, Ralf & Rösch, Daniel, 2019. "A country specific point of view on international diversification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez, 2020. "Another look at the implied and realised volatility relation: a copula-based approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 38-64, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:53:y:2016:i:c:p:63-74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.