IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v109y2022ics0264999322000098.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The power and influence of rating agencies with insights into their misuse

Author

Listed:
  • Basu, Kaushik
  • Sun, Haokun

Abstract

The paper investigates the source of power and influence of agencies engaged in rating and ranking nations. Their power and knowledge are puzzling since the economics profession is itself split about what constitutes good fundamentals for an economy. Based on some stylized facts of the Ease of Doing Business rankings, the paper constructs a model that shows ratings can contribute to creating a focal point for investors, prompting behavior that makes the ratings come out right in retrospect. The paper then comments on the real-world implications of the model, possible extensions of the theory, and how the power to create focal points can be misused by organizations engaged in rating and ranking nations.

Suggested Citation

  • Basu, Kaushik & Sun, Haokun, 2022. "The power and influence of rating agencies with insights into their misuse," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:109:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322000098
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105763
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999322000098
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105763?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Josephson, Jens & Shapiro, Joel, 2020. "Credit ratings and structured finance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    2. Vincent P. Crawford & Uri Gneezy & Yuval Rottenstreich, 2008. "The Power of Focal Points Is Limited: Even Minute Payoff Asymmetry May Yield Large Coordination Failures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1443-1458, September.
    3. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1982. "Limit Pricing and Entry under Incomplete Information: An Equilibrium Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 443-459, March.
    4. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. "The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
    5. Anil K. Kashyap & Natalia Kovrijnykh, 2016. "Who Should Pay for Credit Ratings and How?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 420-456.
    6. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2002. "The Political Economy of Government Responsiveness: Theory and Evidence from India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1415-1451.
    7. Itay Goldstein & Chong Huang, 2020. "Credit Rating Inflation and Firms' Investments," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2929-2972, December.
    8. Basu, Kaushik & Weibull, Jorgen W., 1991. "Strategy subsets closed under rational behavior," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 141-146, June.
    9. Kaushik Basu, 2003. "Globalization and the Politics of International Finance: The Stiglitz Verdict," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 885-899, September.
    10. Sugden, Robert, 1995. "A Theory of Focal Points," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 533-550, May.
    11. Kraft, Pepa, 2015. "Do rating agencies cater? Evidence from rating-based contracts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 264-283.
    12. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W., 1986. "The effect of bond rating changes on common stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-89, September.
    13. Manso, Gustavo, 2013. "Feedback effects of credit ratings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 535-548.
    14. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2011. "Monetary policy after the crisis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 35-49.
    15. Goh, Jeremy C & Ederington, Louis H, 1993. "Is a Bond Rating Downgrade Bad News, Good News, or No News for Stockholders?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 2001-2008, December.
    16. World Bank, 2019. "Doing Business 2019," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 30438, December.
    17. Ozturk, Huseyin & Namli, Ersin & Erdal, Halil Ibrahim, 2016. "Modelling sovereign credit ratings: The accuracy of models in a heterogeneous sample," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 469-478.
    18. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Todd T. Milbourn & Anjolein Schmeits, 2006. "Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 81-118.
    19. Giovanni Ferri & Andrea Morone, 2014. "The effect of rating agencies on herd behaviour," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 9(1), pages 107-127, April.
    20. Diego García & Francesco Sangiorgi, 2011. "Information Sales and Strategic Trading," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3069-3104.
    21. Sangiorgi, Francesco & Spatt, Chester, 2017. "The Economics of Credit Rating Agencies," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 12(1), pages 1-116, December.
    22. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
    23. Laura L. Veldkamp, 2006. "Media Frenzies in Markets for Financial Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 577-601, June.
    24. Stefano Lugo & Annalisa Croce & Robert Faff, 2015. "Herding Behavior and Rating Convergence among Credit Rating Agencies: Evidence from the Subprime Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1703-1731.
    25. Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Duygun, Meryem & Mamedshakhova, Djamila, 2016. "Do rating grades convey important information: German evidence?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 334-344.
    26. Baghai, Ramin P. & Becker, Bo, 2018. "Non-rating revenue and conflicts of interest," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 94-112.
    27. Welch, Ivo, 1992. "Sequential Sales, Learning, and Cascades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 695-732, June.
    28. Kreps, David M. & Wilson, Robert, 1982. "Reputation and imperfect information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 253-279, August.
    29. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. ArnabK. Basu & NancyH. Chau & Ravi Kanbur, 2010. "Turning a Blind Eye: Costly Enforcement, Credible Commitment and Minimum Wage Laws," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(543), pages 244-269, March.
    31. Basu, Kaushik, 2015. "An Economist in the Real World: The Art of Policymaking in India," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262029626, December.
    32. Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2015. "Cracking the Emerging Markets Enigma," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199336623, Decembrie.
    33. Giovanni Cespa, 2008. "Information Sales and Insider Trading with Long‐Lived Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 639-672, April.
    34. Basu, Kaushik & De, Supriyo & Ratha, Dilip & Timmer, Hans, 2013. "Sovereign ratings in the post-crisis world : an analysis of actual, shadow and relative risk ratings," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6641, The World Bank.
    35. G. Ferri & L.-G. Liu & J. E. Stiglitz, 1999. "The Procyclical Role of Rating Agencies: Evidence from the East Asian Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 335-355, November.
    36. Stolper, Anno, 2009. "Regulation of credit rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1266-1273, July.
    37. Michaelides, Alexander & Milidonis, Andreas & Nishiotis, George P. & Papakyriakou, Panayiotis, 2015. "The adverse effects of systematic leakage ahead of official sovereign debt rating announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 526-547.
    38. World Bank, 2020. "Doing Business 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 32436, December.
    39. Shapiro, Joel & Piccolo, Alessio, 2017. "Credit Ratings and Market Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 11961, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Wang Man Cang & Zhou Ming Matt, 2017. "Will Rising Debt in China Lead to a Hard Landing?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 60-69, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Maia, João Pedro Neves, 2023. "Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Aggarwal, Nidhi & Singh, Manish K. & Thomas, Susan, 2023. "Do decreases in Distance-to-Default predict rating downgrades?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Valentina Bruno & Jess Cornaggia & Kimberly J. Cornaggia, 2016. "Does Regulatory Certification Affect the Information Content of Credit Ratings?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1578-1597, June.
    2. May, Anthony D., 2010. "The impact of bond rating changes on corporate bond prices: New evidence from the over-the-counter market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2822-2836, November.
    3. Bannier, Christina E. & Hirsch, Christian W., 2010. "The economic function of credit rating agencies - What does the watchlist tell us?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3037-3049, December.
    4. Kiesel, F., 2016. "Do Investors Still Rely on Credit Rating Agencies? Evidence from the Financial Crisis," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 77927, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. Aktas, Nihat & Petmezas, Dimitris & Servaes, Henri & Karampatsas, Nikolaos, 2021. "Credit ratings and acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Kiesel, Florian, 2016. "The effect of credit and rating events on credit default swap and equity markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 81265, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    7. Brendan Daley & Brett Green & Victoria Vanasco, 2020. "Securitization, Ratings, and Credit Supply," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 1037-1082, April.
    8. Kiesel, F., 2016. "The effect of credit and rating events on credit default swap and equity markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 81247, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    9. Schürhoff, Norman & Chen, Zhihua & Lookman, Aziz & Seppi, Duane J, 2012. "Bond Ratings Matter: Evidence from the Lehman Brothers Index Rating Redefinition," CEPR Discussion Papers 9108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Dorsaf Azouz Ghachem & Abdelkader Boudriga & Chokri Mamoghli, 2011. "Does The American Stock Market React Differently to Rating Announcements During A Crisis Period? The Case of the 2008 Worldwide Financial Crisis," Working Papers 601, Economic Research Forum, revised 07 Jan 2011.
    11. repec:uts:finphd:36 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kraft, Pepa & Xie, Yuan & Zhou, Ling, 2020. "The intraday timing of rating changes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Chamroeun Sok, 2012. "Corporate Credit Rating Announcements: Information Content of Rating Announcements Models: Evidence from the Australian Financial Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2012.
    14. Rosati, Nicoletta & Bellia, Mario & Matos, Pedro Verga & Oliveira, Vasco, 2020. "Ratings matter: Announcements in times of crisis and the dynamics of stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Stefano Lovo & Philippe Raimbourg & Federica Salvadè, 2022. "Credit rating agencies, information asymmetry and US bond liquidity," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(9-10), pages 1863-1896, October.
    16. Goergen, Marc & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Koutroumpis, Panagiotis, 2021. "Do multiple credit ratings reduce money left on the table? Evidence from U.S. IPOs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2015. "Credit ratings and cross-border bond market spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 115-136.
    18. Fathi Nakai & Tarek Chebbi, 2023. "The informational content of sovereign credit rating: another look," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(5), pages 353-373, September.
    19. Winnie P. H. Poon & Jianfu Shen, 2020. "The roles of rating outlooks: the predictor of creditworthiness and the monitor of recovery efforts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1063-1091, October.
    20. Yun Wang & Yilan Xu, 2015. "Race to the Top: Credit Rating Bias from Competition," Working Papers 2015-05-12, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University, revised 10 Jul 2015.
    21. Kiesel, F. & Kolaric, S., 2018. "Measuring the effect of watch-preceded and direct rating changes: a note on credit markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 87386, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:109:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322000098. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.