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Carl’s nonlinear cobweb

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  • Hommes, Cars

Abstract

This essay surveys some of my work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality within the classical cobweb model following early inspiring ideas from Carl Chiarella. In particular, I focus on the role of nonlinear dynamics, learning and heterogeneity within the cobweb framework and how price fluctuations in the cobweb theory fit with observations of individual and aggregate behaviour from laboratory experiments with human subjects.

Suggested Citation

  • Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Carl’s nonlinear cobweb," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 7-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:91:y:2018:i:c:p:7-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.12.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Lichtenberg, A. J. & Ujihara, A., 1989. "Application of nonlinear mapping theory to commodity price fluctuatuions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 225-246, April.
    3. Hommes, Cars & Lux, Thomas, 2013. "Individual Expectations And Aggregate Behavior In Learning-To-Forecast Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 373-401, March.
    4. Goeree, Jacob K. & Hommes, Cars H., 2000. "Heterogeneous beliefs and the non-linear cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 761-798, June.
    5. Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January.
    6. Hommes, Cars & Zhu, Mei, 2014. "Behavioral learning equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 778-814.
    7. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    8. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
    9. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & Van De Velden, Henk, 2007. "Learning In Cobweb Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 8-33, November.
    10. Hommes,Cars, 2015. "Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107564978.
    11. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
    12. Diks, Cees & van der Weide, Roy, 2005. "Herding, a-synchronous updating and heterogeneity in memory in a CBS," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 741-763, April.
    13. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    14. Richard H. Day, 1994. "Complex Economic Dynamics - Vol. 1: An Introduction to Dynamical Systems and Market Mechanisms," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262041413, December.
    15. Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He & Cars Hommes (ed.), 2014. "Nonlinear Economic Dynamics and Financial Modelling," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-319-07470-2, September.
    16. Jensen, Roderick V. & Urban, Robin, 1984. "Chaotic price behavior in a non-linear cobweb model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(3-4), pages 235-240.
    17. Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004. "The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
    18. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    19. Hommes, Cars H. & Rosser,, J. Barkley, 2001. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria And Complex Dynamics In Renewable Resource Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 180-203, April.
    20. Reinhard Selten & Michael Mitzkewitz & Gerald R. Uhlich, 1997. "Duopoly Strategies Programmed by Experienced Players," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 517-556, May.
    21. Marc Nerlove, 1958. "Adaptive Expectations and Cobweb Phenomena," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 72(2), pages 227-240.
    22. Nicholas Kaldor, 1934. "A Classificatory Note on the Determinateness of Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 1(2), pages 122-136.
    23. Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
    24. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 264-295, March.
    25. Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 287-321, September.
    26. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Managing rational routes to randomness," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 157-173.
    27. Artstein, Zvi, 1983. "Irregular cobweb dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 15-17.
    28. Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hartwig, Johannes, 2022. "Semi-endogenous growth dynamics in a macroeconomic model with delays," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 538-551.
    2. Dieci, Roberto & Mignot, Sarah & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Production delays, technology choice and cyclical cobweb dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Aloisio Araujo & Wilfredo L. Maldonado & Diogo Pinheiro & Alberto A. Pinto & Mohammad Choubdar Soltanahmadi, 2021. "Refinement of dynamic equilibrium using small random perturbations," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 17(3), pages 258-283, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cobweb model; Chaos; Expectations; Heterogeneity; Laboratory experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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