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Imperfect knowledge, liquidity and bubbles

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  • Branch, William A.

Abstract

Insufficient liquidity can lead to substantial movements in asset prices. There is a single asset traded in a centralized market that facilitates exchange in decentralized trade. If the asset is in short supply the price includes a liquidity premium. Traders have imperfect knowledge about future asset prices and estimate, in real-time, an econometric forecasting model. A permanent decrease in the supply of assets, or an increase in collateral requirements, can lead to over-shooting of the price. When price includes a liquidity premium there can be recurrent bubbles and crashes. Liquidity and adaptive learning play key roles in fitting the empirical distribution of price–dividend ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Branch, William A., 2016. "Imperfect knowledge, liquidity and bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:62:y:2016:i:c:p:17-42
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2015.11.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Adaptive learning; Bubbles; Liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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