IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v138y2019icp274-293.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vertical FDI and exchange rates over the business cycle: The welfare implications of openness to FDI

Author

Listed:
  • Shi, Jiao

Abstract

It has long been observed that a country tends to receive increased net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow when its currency depreciates. We build an open-economy macroeconomic model that accounts for the positive correlation, and re-examine the welfare implications of FDI, focusing mainly on the short run. We show that short-run FDI fluctuations exacerbate utility loss over business cycles in an environment with monetary shocks, but have little impact on welfare over business cycles caused by productivity shocks. The best outcome occurs when the economy retains long-run FDI, but restricts short-run movements in the production location of firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Jiao, 2019. "Vertical FDI and exchange rates over the business cycle: The welfare implications of openness to FDI," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 274-293.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:138:y:2019:i:c:p:274-293
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.01.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387818306333
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.01.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudia M. Buch & Jörn Kleinert, 2008. "Exchange Rates and FDI: Goods versus Capital Market Frictions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1185-1207, September.
    2. Javier Cravino & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2017. "Multinational Firms and International Business Cycle Transmission," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 921-962.
    3. Messina, Julian & Strozzi, Chiara & Turunen, Jarkko, 2009. "Real wages over the business cycle: OECD evidence from the time and frequency domains," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1183-1200, June.
    4. Zlate, Andrei, 2016. "Offshore production and business cycle dynamics with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 34-49.
    5. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    6. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2003. "Export versus FDI," NBER Working Papers 9439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2001. "The Optimal Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: Price-Setting Rules and Internationalized Production," NBER Chapters, in: Topics in Empirical International Economics: A Festschrift in Honor of Robert E. Lipsey, pages 163-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. McGrattan, Ellen R. & Prescott, Edward C., 2009. "Openness, technology capital, and development," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2454-2476, November.
    9. Klein, Michael W. & Rosengren, Eric, 1994. "The real exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the United States : Relative wealth vs. relative wage effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 373-389, May.
    10. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2019. "Firm-Specific Assets and the Link Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 3, pages 89-120, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March.
    12. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
    13. Natalia Ramondo & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2013. "Trade, Multinational Production, and the Gains from Openness," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 273-322.
    14. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
    15. Bayoumi, Tamim & Lipworth, Gabrielle, 1998. "Japanese foreign direct investment and regional trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 581-607.
    16. Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1215-1264, September.
    17. Edward John Ray, 1989. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 1979-85," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policies for International Competitiveness, pages 53-84, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Lewis, Logan T., 2014. "Exports versus multinational production under nominal uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 371-386.
    19. Bruce Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 383-403, December.
    20. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2009. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1339-1369, September.
    21. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    22. Hervé Le Bihan & Jérémi Montornès & Thomas Heckel, 2012. "Sticky Wages: Evidence from Quarterly Microeconomic Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 1-32, July.
    23. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2017. "Volatility Due to Offshoring: Theory and Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 3, pages 45-77, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Alessandro Barattieri & Susanto Basu & Peter Gottschalk, 2014. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Wages," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 70-101, January.
    25. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    26. Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May.
    27. Kozo Kiyota & Shujiro Urata, 2004. "Exchange Rate, Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Direct Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(10), pages 1501-1536, November.
    28. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2017. "Offshoring and Volatility: Evidence from Mexico’s Maquiladora Industry," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 2, pages 31-44, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    29. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    30. Costas Arkolakis & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2009. "Vertical Specialization and International Business Cycle Synchronization," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(4), pages 655-680, December.
    31. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6apm7lruv088iagm4rv2c33jtg is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Russ, Katheryn Niles, 2007. "The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 344-372, April.
    33. Ariel T. Burstein & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2009. "Foreign Know-How, Firm Control, and the Income of Developing Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 149-195.
    34. Robert Grosse & Len J Trevino, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: An Analysis by Country of Origin," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 27(1), pages 139-155, March.
    35. Ramondo, Natalia, 2014. "A quantitative approach to multinational production," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 108-122.
    36. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," Post-Print hal-03579844, HAL.
    37. Blomstrom, Magnus & Goldberg, Linda S. (ed.), 2001. "Topics in Empirical International Economics," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226060835, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moralles, Herick Fernando & Moreno, Rosina, 2020. "FDI productivity spillovers and absorptive capacity in Brazilian firms: A threshold regression analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 257-272.
    2. Liu, S. & Xiao, Q., 2021. "An empirical analysis on spatial correlation investigation of industrial carbon emissions using SNA-ICE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    3. Ranti Darwin & Dyah Wulan Sari & Unggul Heriqbaldi, 2022. "Dynamic Linkages between Energy Consumption, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth: A New Insight from Developing Countries in Asia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 30-36, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shi Li & Hironobu Nakagawa, 2022. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: Evidence from Chinese firm‐level data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(9), pages 2902-2923, September.
    2. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "A micro-macro model of foreign direct investment: knowledge-based gravity forces, self-selection and third-country effects," MPRA Paper 115542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Matthias Busse & Carsten Hefeker & Signe Nelgen, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 843-858.
    4. Shauna Phillips & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi-Esfahani, 2008. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: theoretical models and empirical evidence ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(4), pages 505-525, December.
    5. Phillips, Shauna & Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z., 2008. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Theoretical Models and Empirical Evidence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(4), pages 1-21.
    6. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "Explaining foreign direct investment patterns: a testable micro-macro gravity model for FDI," MPRA Paper 115273, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zlate, Andrei, 2016. "Offshore production and business cycle dynamics with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 34-49.
    8. Katheryn Russ, 2012. "Exchange rate volatility and first-time entry by multinational firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(2), pages 269-295, June.
    9. Takagi, Shinji & Shi, Zongying, 2011. "Exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI): Japanese investment in Asia, 1987–2008," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 265-272.
    10. Anagnostopoulos, Alexios & Atesagaoglu, Orhan Erem & Faraglia, Elisa & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2022. "Cross country stock market comovement: A macro perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 34-48.
    11. Javier Cravino & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2017. "Multinational Firms and International Business Cycle Transmission," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 921-962.
    12. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2018. "Global Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(2), pages 565-619, June.
    13. Joel Rodrigue, 2014. "Multinational Production, Exports and Aggregate Productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 243-261, April.
    14. Raphael Chiappini & François Viaud, 2021. "Macroeconomic, institutional, and sectoral determinants of outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 404-433, August.
    15. Ziran Ding, 2022. "Firm heterogeneity, variable markups, and multinational production: A review from trade policy perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1311-1357, December.
    16. Pamela Bombarda & Stefania Marcassa, 2017. "Intra-Firm Trade, Multinational Production, and Welfare," THEMA Working Papers 2017-15, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    17. Adam Hal Spencer, 2022. "Policy Effects of International Taxation on Firm Dynamics and Capital Structure [Foreign investment of us multinationals: The effect of tax policy and agency conflicts]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 2149-2200.
    18. Martin Kliem & Alexander Kriwoluzky, 2014. "Toward a Taylor Rule for Fiscal Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 294-302, April.
    19. Lee, Bong-Soo & Min, Byung S., 2011. "Exchange rates and FDI strategies of multinational enterprises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 586-603, November.
    20. Pamela Bombarda & Stefania Marcassa, 2014. "Gains from Intra-Firm Trade and Multinational Production," THEMA Working Papers 2014-14, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign direct investment; Exchange rates; Gains from openness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:138:y:2019:i:c:p:274-293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.