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A unifying framework for analysing common cyclical features in cointegrated time series

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  • Cubadda, Gianluca

Abstract

This paper provides a unifying framework in which the coexistence of different form of common cyclical features can be tested and imposed to a cointegrated VAR model. This goal is reached by introducing a new notion of common cyclical features, namely the weak form of polynomial serial correlation common features, which encompasses most of the previous ones. Statistical inference is obtained by means of reduced-rank regression, and alternative forms of common cyclical features are detected by means of tests for over-identifying restrictions on the parameters of the new model. Some iterative estimation procedures are then proposed for simultaneously modelling different forms of common features. Concepts and methods are illustrated by an empirical investigation of the US business cycle indicators.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 52 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 896-906

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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:52:y:2007:i:2:p:896-906

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References

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  1. Gianluca Cubadda, 2007. "A Reduced Rank Regression Approach to Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 271-292, 04.
  2. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  3. Robert F. Engle & João Victor Issler, 1993. "Common trends and common cycles in Latin America," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 47(2), pages 149-176, April.
  4. Paruolo Paolo, 2006. "Finite sample comparison of alternative tests on the rank of a cointegration submatrix," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0606, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  5. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
  6. Paruolo Paolo, 2003. "Common dynamics in I(1) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0316, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  7. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July.
  8. Paruolo Paolo, 2004. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217tris, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  9. Haldrup, Niels & Hylleberg, Svend & Pons, Gabriel & Sanso, Andreu, 2007. "Common Periodic Correlation Features and the Interaction of Stocks and Flows in Daily Airport Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 21-32, January.
  10. Cubadda, Gianluca & Omtzigt, Pieter, 2005. "Small-sample improvements in the statistical analysis of seasonally cointegrated systems," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 333-348, April.
  11. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
  12. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C. & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2006. "Common cyclical features analysis in VAR models with cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 117-141, May.
  13. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  14. Proietti, Tommaso, 1997. "Short-Run Dynamics in Cointegrated Systems," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 405-22, August.
  15. Mizon, Grayham E., 1995. "A simple message for autocorrelation correctors: Don't," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 267-288, September.
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
  17. Cubadda, Gianluca, 1999. "Common Cycles in Seasonal Non-stationary Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 273-91, May-June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Nannette Lindenberg & Frank Westermann, 2009. "Common Trends and Common Cycles among Interest Rates of the G7-Countries," Working Papers 77, Institute of Empirical Economic Research.
  2. Gianluca Cubadda & Barbara Guardabascio & Alain Hecq, 2012. "A General to Specific Approach for Constructing Composite Business Cycle Indicators," CEIS Research Paper 224, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 27 Feb 2012.
  3. Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C., 2009. "Studying co-movements in large multivariate data prior to multivariate modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 25-35, January.
  4. Nannette Lindenberg & Frank Westermann, 2012. "How strong is the case for dollarization in Central America? An empirical analysis of business cycles, credit market imperfections and the exchange rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 147-166, 04.
  5. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara, 2012. "A medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1099-1105.
  6. Justyna Wróblewska, 2012. "Bayesian Analysis of Weak Form Polynomial Reduced Rank Structures in VEC Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 4(4), pages 253-267, December.
  7. Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda, 2011. "Modelling comovements of economic time series: a selective survey," Statistica, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna, vol. 71(2), pages 267-294.
  8. Nannette Lindenberg & Frank Westermann, 2009. "How Strong is the Case for Dollarization in Costa Rica? A Note on the Business Cycle Comovements with the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 2785, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Espasa, Antoni & Mayo-Burgos, Iván, 2013. "Forecasting aggregates and disaggregates with common features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 718-732.

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