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Using size distribution analysis to forecast natural gas resources in Asia Pacific

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  • Aguilera, Roberto F.
  • Ripple, Ronald D.

Abstract

Increasing energy consumption in Asia Pacific will largely be met by fossil fuels. Natural gas production in the region presently ranks behind that of oil and coal. However, the abundance of gas could lead to a significant gas market share increase in the energy mix. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the total endowment of conventional gas in Asia Pacific. This is carried out with a Variable Shape Distribution (VSD) model that forecasts volumes in provinces that have not been previously evaluated. The endowment is then distributed across countries to show where volumes are most likely to be found. A breakdown between offshore versus onshore resources is also estimated. The results of the analysis show there is a significant gas endowment. The estimated distribution across countries and onshore/offshore areas provides insight into the relative economics of gas production, as well as a basis for potential investment decisions. With appropriate energy policies, it may be possible to tap the vast gas potential in Asia Pacific. Considering gas may be the most abundant, inexpensive, and clean fossil fuel, the outcome would be increased energy security and a low carbon economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Aguilera, Roberto F. & Ripple, Ronald D., 2011. "Using size distribution analysis to forecast natural gas resources in Asia Pacific," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4607-4620.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:12:p:4607-4620
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.05.057
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberto F. Aguilera & Roderick G. Eggert & Gustavo Lagos C.C. & John E. Tilton, 2009. "Depletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 141-174.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ravnik, J. & Hriberšek, M., 2019. "A method for natural gas forecasting and preliminary allocation based on unique standard natural gas consumption profiles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 149-162.
    2. Ding, Song, 2018. "A novel self-adapting intelligent grey model for forecasting China's natural-gas demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 393-407.
    3. Aguilera, Roberto F., 2014. "The role of natural gas in a low carbon Asia Pacific," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1795-1800.
    4. Aguilera, Roberto F. & Inchauspe, Julian & Ripple, Ronald D., 2014. "The Asia Pacific natural gas market: Large enough for all?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-6.
    5. Zou, Youqin & Yang, Changbing & Wu, Daishe & Yan, Chun & Zeng, Masun & Lan, Yingying & Dai, Zhenxue, 2016. "Probabilistic assessment of shale gas production and water demand at Xiuwu Basin in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 185-195.
    6. Aguilera, Roberto F. & Ripple, Ronald D., 2013. "Modeling primary energy substitution in the Asia Pacific," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 219-224.

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