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Depletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources

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  • Roberto F. Aguilera
  • Roderick G. Eggert
  • Gustavo Lagos C.C.
  • John E. Tilton

Abstract

This study assesses the threat that depletion poses to the availability of petroleum resources. It does so by estimating cumulative availability curves for conventional petroleum (oil, gas, and natural gas liquids) and for three unconventional sources of liquids (heavy oil, oil sands, and oil shale). The analysis extends the important study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (2000) on this topic by taking account of (1) conventional petroleum resources from provinces not assessed by the Survey or other organizations, (2) future reserve growth, (3) unconventional sources of liquids, and (4) production costs. The results indicate that large quantities of conventional and unconventional petroleum resources are available and can be produced at costs substantially below current market prices of around US$120 per barrel. These findings suggest that petroleum resources are likely to last far longer than many are now predicting and that depletion need not drive market prices above the relatively high levels prevailing over the past several years.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

Volume (Year): Volume 30 (2009)
Issue (Month): Number 1 ()
Pages: 141-174

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Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2009v30-01-a06

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Cited by:
  1. Verbruggen, Aviel & Al Marchohi, Mohamed, 2010. "Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5572-5581, October.
  2. James L. Smith, 2009. "World Oil: Market or Mayhem?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 145-64, Summer.
  3. Yaksic, Andrés & Tilton, John E., 2009. "Using the cumulative availability curve to assess the threat of mineral depletion: The case of lithium," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 185-194, December.
  4. Huppmann, Daniel, 2013. "Endogenous shifts in OPEC market power - A Stackelberg oligopoly with fringe," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79758, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Paltsev, Sergey & Jacoby, Henry D. & Reilly, John M. & Ejaz, Qudsia J. & Morris, Jennifer & O'Sullivan, Francis & Rausch, Sebastian & Winchester, Niven & Kragha, Oghenerume, 2011. "The future of U.S. natural gas production, use, and trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5309-5321, September.
  6. Sorrell, Steve & Miller, Richard & Bentley, Roger & Speirs, Jamie, 2010. "Oil futures: A comparison of global supply forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4990-5003, September.
  7. van Ruijven, Bas & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4797-4808, November.
  8. Moschini, GianCarlo & Cui, Jingbo & Lapan, Harvey E., 0. "Economics of Biofuels: An Overview of Policies, Impacts and Prospects," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 3.
  9. Hans-Dieter Karl, 2010. "Estimation of Production Costs for Energy Resources," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(4), pages 63-71, December.
  10. Wetzstein, M. & Wetzstein, H., 2011. "Four myths surrounding U.S. biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4308-4312, July.
  11. Aguilera, Roberto F., 2014. "Production costs of global conventional and unconventional petroleum," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 134-140.
  12. Hans-Dieter Karl, 2010. "Abschätzung der Förderkosten für Energierohstoffe," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(02), pages 21-29, 01.
  13. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(2), pages 664-694, February.
  14. Aguilera, Roberto F., 2009. "Oil supply in Central and South America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2916-2925, August.

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