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Forecasting total natural-gas consumption in Spain by using the stochastic Gompertz innovation diffusion model

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  • Gutiérrez, R.
  • Nafidi, A.
  • Gutiérrez Sánchez, R.
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    Abstract

    The principal objective of the present study is to examine the possibilities of using a Gompertz-type innovation diffusion process as a stochastic growth model of natural-gas consumption in Spain, and to compare our results with those obtained, on the one hand, by stochastic logistic innovation modelling and, on the other, by using a stochastic lognormal growth model based on a non-innovation diffusion process. Such a comparison is carried out taking into account the macroeconomic characteristics and natural-gas consumption patterns in Spain, both of which reflect the current expansive situation characterizing the Spanish economy. From the technical standpoint a contribution is also made to the theory of the stochastic Gompertz Innovation diffusion process (SGIDP), as applied to the case in question.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.

    Volume (Year): 80 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 115-124

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:80:y:2005:i:2:p:115-124

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    Keywords: Stochastic Gompertz; logistic and lognormal models Natural-gas consumption Estimation and prediction;

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    Cited by:
    1. Kalashnikov, V.V. & Matis, T.I. & Pérez-Valdés, G.A., 2010. "Time series analysis applied to construct US natural gas price functions for groups of states," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 887-900, July.
    2. Gutiérrez, R. & Gutiérrez-Sánchez, R. & Nafidi, A., 2006. "Electricity consumption in Morocco: Stochastic Gompertz diffusion analysis with exogenous factors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(10), pages 1139-1151, October.
    3. Azadeh, A. & Asadzadeh, S.M. & Saberi, M. & Nadimi, V. & Tajvidi, A. & Sheikalishahi, M., 2011. "A Neuro-fuzzy-stochastic frontier analysis approach for long-term natural gas consumption forecasting and behavior analysis: The cases of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and UAE," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3850-3859.
    4. Azadeh, A. & Asadzadeh, S.M. & Ghanbari, A., 2010. "An adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system for short-term natural gas demand estimation: Uncertain and complex environments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1529-1536, March.
    5. Gutiérrez, R. & Gutiérrez-Sánchez, R. & Nafidi, A., 2009. "The trend of the total stock of the private car-petrol in Spain: Stochastic modelling using a new gamma diffusion process," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 18-24, January.
    6. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
    7. Vondrácek, Jirí & Pelikán, Emil & Konár, Ondrej & Cermáková, Jana & Eben, Krystof & Malý, Marek & Brabec, Marek, 2008. "A statistical model for the estimation of natural gas consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(5), pages 362-370, May.
    8. Gutiérrez, R. & Gutiérrez-Sánchez, R. & Nafidi, A., 2008. "Trend analysis and computational statistical estimation in a stochastic Rayleigh model: Simulation and application," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 209-217.

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