Forecasting total natural-gas consumption in Spain by using the stochastic Gompertz innovation diffusion model
AbstractThe principal objective of the present study is to examine the possibilities of using a Gompertz-type innovation diffusion process as a stochastic growth model of natural-gas consumption in Spain, and to compare our results with those obtained, on the one hand, by stochastic logistic innovation modelling and, on the other, by using a stochastic lognormal growth model based on a non-innovation diffusion process. Such a comparison is carried out taking into account the macroeconomic characteristics and natural-gas consumption patterns in Spain, both of which reflect the current expansive situation characterizing the Spanish economy. From the technical standpoint a contribution is also made to the theory of the stochastic Gompertz Innovation diffusion process (SGIDP), as applied to the case in question.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.
Volume (Year): 80 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
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