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Estimation of natural-gas consumption in Poland based on the logistic-curve interpretation

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  • Siemek, Jakub
  • Nagy, Stanislaw
  • Rychlicki, Stanislaw
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    Abstract

    This paper describes the possible scenario of the development of the gas sector in Poland. An adaptation of the Hubbert model is implemented to the Polish situation based upon the Starzman modification. The model presented describes hypothetical natural-gas demand, based on average trend of the economy development during recent decades; the model considers natural production/demand maxima of energy carriers. The prognosis is loaded with an error resulting from the use of average data related to yearly increases of the national gross product. The adapted model expresses good compatibility with the natural-gas demand for the period 1995-2000. However, the error of prognosis may reach 20%. The simple structure of the model enables the possibility of yearly updating, and eventual correction of the natural-gas demand. In cases of untypical changes of the economy growth rate (long stagnation, extreme long and accelerated development), the prognosis error may increase.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.

    Volume (Year): 75 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 1-2 (May)
    Pages: 1-7

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:75:y:2003:i:1-2:p:1-7

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description

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    Related research

    Keywords: Natural-gas demand Economy Hubert model Energy demand;

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    Cited by:
    1. Chedid, R. & Kobrosly, M. & Ghajar, R., 2007. "A supply model for crude oil and natural gas in the Middle East," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2096-2109, April.
    2. Azadeh, A. & Asadzadeh, S.M. & Saberi, M. & Nadimi, V. & Tajvidi, A. & Sheikalishahi, M., 2011. "A Neuro-fuzzy-stochastic frontier analysis approach for long-term natural gas consumption forecasting and behavior analysis: The cases of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and UAE," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3850-3859.
    3. Pablo Salas, 2013. "Literature Review of Energy-Economics Models, Regarding Technological Change and Uncertainty," 4CMR Working Paper Series 003, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research.
    4. Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
    5. Azadeh, A. & Asadzadeh, S.M. & Ghanbari, A., 2010. "An adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system for short-term natural gas demand estimation: Uncertain and complex environments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1529-1536, March.
    6. Forouzanfar, Mehdi & Doustmohammadi, Ali & Menhaj, M. Bagher & Hasanzadeh, Samira, 2010. "Modeling and estimation of the natural gas consumption for residential and commercial sectors in Iran," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 268-274, January.

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