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Estimation of dynamic maize supply response in Zambia

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  • Foster, Kenneth A.
  • Mwanaumo, Anthony

Abstract

Increased attention on government pricing policies among African nations leads directly to a need for information about producer responses to price adjustments. This is especially true in the case of Zambian maize production. Maize is the most important crop grown in Zambia. It accounts for more than 80% of the value of marketed food crops, is heavily relied on for subsistence consumption, and is a staple food in the diet of all Zambian citizens. This paper analyzes the aggregate price response of maize supply in Zambia using a dynamic regression analysis. As a result, short, intermediate and long-run multipliers/elasticities are measured which can be used to analyze the effect of future price policy changes. It was found that a second-order rational distributed lag model best fits the available data. Estimates of short-run elasticities of supply for maize and fertilizer prices are 0.54 and - 0.48, respectively. The corresponding estimated long-run elasticities are 1.57 and -1.44.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell in its journal Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (1995)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 99-107

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Handle: RePEc:eee:agecon:v:12:y:1995:i:1:p:99-107

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  1. Holden, Stein T., 1993. "Peasant household modelling: Farming systems evolution and sustainability in northern Zambia," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 9, September.
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  4. Rao, J. Mohan, 1989. "Agricultural Supply Response: A Survey," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 3(1), March.
  5. Marian E. Bond, 1983. "Agricultural Responses to Prices in Sub-Saharan African Countries (Réactions du secteur agricole aux prix en Afrique au sud du Sahara) (Reacciones de la agricultura ante los precios en los paíse," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 30(4), pages 703-726, December.
  6. Akiyama, T. & Trivedi, P. K., 1987. "Vintage production approach to perennial crop supply : An application to tea in major producing countries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 133-161.
  7. Askari, Hossein & Cummings, John Thomas, 1977. "Estimating Agricultural Supply Response with the Nerlove Model: A Survey," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 257-92, June.
  8. Foster, Kenneth A & Burt, Oscar R, 1992. "A Dynamic Model of Investment in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 419-26, October.
  9. Maddala, G S & Rao, A S, 1971. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Solow's and Jorgenson's Distributed Lag Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(1), pages 80-88, February.
  10. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-28, May.
  11. Colman, David R., 1983. "A Review of the Arts of Supply Response Analysis," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 51(03), December.
  12. Dhrymes, Phoebus J & Klein, Lawrence R & Steiglitz, Kenneth, 1970. "Estimation of Distributed Lags," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(2), pages 235-50, June.
  13. Nicholls, D F & Pagan, Adrian R & Terrell, R D, 1975. "The Estimation and Use of Models with Moving Average Disturbance Terms: A Survey," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 113-34, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mergos, G. J. & Stoforos, Ch. E., 1997. "Fertilizer demand in Greece," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 227-235, August.
  2. Roman Keeney & Thomas W. Hertel, 2008. "U.S. Market Potential For Dried Distillers Grain With Solubles," Working Papers 08-13, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
  3. Aktas, Erkan & Yurdakul, Oğuz, 2005. "Destekleme ve Teknoloji Politikalarının Çukurova Bölgesinde Mısır Tarımı Üzerine Etkisi
    [Effects of Agricultural Support and Technology Policies on Corn Farming in Çukurova Region]
    ," MPRA Paper 8645, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Cutts, Michela & Hassan, Rashid M., 2003. "An Econometric Model Of The Sadc Maize Sector," 2003 Annual Conference, October 2-3, 2003, Pretoria, South Africa 19075, Agricultural Economic Association of South Africa (AEASA).
  5. Gallagher, Paul W., 2012. "Trade Policy Options for a Food-Security Commodity in Southern Africa: A Case Study of Maize in Zambia," Staff General Research Papers 34830, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Kimhi, Ayal, 2003. "Plot Size And Maize Productivity In Zambia: The Inverse Relationship Re-Examined," Discussion Papers 14980, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Agricultural Economics and Management.
  7. Mergos, G.J. & Stoforos, Ch.E., 1997. "Fertilizer demand in Greece," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(3), August.
  8. Frechette, Darren L., 1999. "The Supply Of Storage Under Heterogeneous Expectations," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(03), December.
  9. Kimhi, Ayal & Chiwele, Dennis K., 2000. "Barriers For Development In Zambian Small- And Medium-Size Farms: Evidence From Micro-Data," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21877, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  10. Aktas, Erkan, 2006. "Çukurova Bölgesi’nde Pamuk Arz Duyarlılığının Tahmini Üzerine Bir Çalışma
    [A Study on the Estimation of Supply Response of Cotton in Cukurova Region]
    ," MPRA Paper 8648, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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