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The Links between the Price of Oil and the Value of US Dollar

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  • Yi Zhang

    (Suffolk University, Boston, USA)

Abstract

Using monthly data, this paper studies the cointegration between the real price of oil and the real effective exchange rate of US dollar allowing for structural breaks. Contrary to the conclusion from previous literature, this paper finds that the cointegration between the oil price and the value of US dollar does not significantly exist unless the effects of two structural breaks in the past, November 1986 and February 2005, are controlled for.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Zhang, 2013. "The Links between the Price of Oil and the Value of US Dollar," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 341-351.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2013-04-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jena, Sangram Keshari & Mitra, Amarnath & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "Impact of oil price risk on sectoral equity markets: Implications on portfolio management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 120-134.
    2. Davood Pirayesh Neghab & Mucahit Cevik & M. I. M. Wahab, 2023. "Explaining Exchange Rate Forecasts with Macroeconomic Fundamentals Using Interpretive Machine Learning," Papers 2303.16149, arXiv.org.
    3. Benjamin Ighodalo Ehikioya & Alexander Ehimare Omankhanlen & Ayopo Abiola Babajide & Godswill Osagie Osuma & Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero, 2020. "Oil Price Fluctuations and Exchange Rate in Selected Sub-Saharan Africa countries: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 242-249.
    4. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Oil price and US dollar exchange rate: Change detection of bi-directional causal impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Adetokunbo, Abiodun M., 2021. "On the connection between oil and global foreign exchange markets: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Robert Socha & Piotr Wdowiński, 2018. "Crude oil price and speculative activity: a cointegration analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(3), pages 263-304, September.
    7. Meen Chee Hong & Ei Yet Chu & Saw Imm Song, 2018. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Crude Oil Price: The Case of an Emerging Market," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 14(2), pages 157-184.
    8. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2016. "Impacts of Foreign and Domestic Structural Shocks on Consumer Prices of the GCC Countries," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(2), pages 34-43, December.
    9. repec:mth:ijafr8:v:9:y:2019:i:1:p:298-316 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Khalid M. Kisswani & Mohammad I. Elian, 2017. "Exploring the nexus between oil prices and sectoral stock prices: Nonlinear evidence from Kuwait stock exchange," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1286061-128, January.
    11. Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Bhattacharya, Mita, 2021. "Movements of oil prices and exchange rates in China and India: New evidence from wavelet-based, non-linear, autoregressive distributed lag estimations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 563(C).
    12. McLeod, Roger C.D. & Haughton, Andre Yone, 2018. "The value of the US dollar and its impact on oil prices: Evidence from a non-linear asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 61-69.
    13. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2017. "Volatility of commodity futures prices and market-implied inflation expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 133-141.
    14. Marek Szturo & Bogdan Włodarczyk & Ireneusz Miciuła & Karolina Szturo, 2021. "The Essence of Relationships between the Crude Oil Market and Foreign Currencies Market Based on a Study of Key Currencies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-17, November.
    15. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    16. Khalid M. Kisswani & Mohammad I. Elian, 2017. "Do Oil Prices Affect Kuwait Sectoral Stock Prices? Non-Linear Cointegration Evidence," Working Papers 1141, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 2003.
    17. Isaacs, Ziyaat & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Testing the long-run relationship between exchange rate, oil price, FDI and GDP: an ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 109279, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Exchange rate; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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