IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2016-03-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bounds Testing Approaches to Housing Demand in Turkey: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Osman Solak

    (Department of Public Finance, Abant zzet Baysal University, Bolu, Turkey)

  • Burhan Kabadayi

    (Department of Economics, Erzincan University, Erzincan, Turkey.)

Abstract

In this study, housing demand in Turkey was examined with bounds testing approaches for the period of 1964-2014. The total square meters of houses sold was taken as housing demand. The explanatory variables of the study are the real price of one square meter of housing, real income level, and urban population. Firstly, stationary properties of the series were checked by unit root tests, then co-integration was investigated. Lastly, we ran the autoregressive lag model process. We found that Turkey is more sensitive to income level and there is positive relationship between prices and housing demand. This might be accounted for by the fact that houses are kinds of investment goods in Turkey

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Osman Solak & Burhan Kabadayi, 2016. "Bounds Testing Approaches to Housing Demand in Turkey: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1132-1135.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2016-03-40
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/2231/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/2231/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "Economic analysis of housing markets in developing and transition economies," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: P. C. Cheshire & E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 44, pages 1791-1864, Elsevier.
    2. Dusansky, Richard & Koc, Cagatay, 2007. "The capital gains effect in the demand for housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 287-298, March.
    3. Piyush Tiwari, 2000. "Housing Demand in Tokyo," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 65-92.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Richard Dusansky & Çağatay Koç & Ilke Onur, 2012. "Household Housing Demand: Empirical Analysis and Theoretical Reconciliation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 429-445, May.
    6. Patrick Bajari & Phoebe Chan & Dirk Krueger & Daniel Miller, 2013. "A Dynamic Model Of Housing Demand: Estimation And Policy Implications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 409-442, May.
    7. Gabriel Lee & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler & Bernhard Felderer & Christian Helmenstein, 2001. "Austrian Demography and Housing Demand: Is There a Connection," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 259-276, September.
    8. Kenny, Geoff, 1999. "Modelling the demand and supply sides of the housing market: evidence from Ireland1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 389-409, August.
    9. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Heiss, Florian & Seko, Miki, 2001. "Housing Demand in Germany and Japan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 229-252, September.
    10. Piyush Tiwari & Jyoti Parikh, 1998. "Affordability, Housing Demand and Housing Policy in Urban India," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 35(11), pages 2111-2129, November.
    11. Ermisch, J. F. & Findlay, J. & Gibb, K., 1996. "The Price Elasticity of Housing Demand in Britain: Issues of Sample Selection," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 64-86, March.
    12. Mehmet DURKAYA & Rahmi YAMAK, 2004. "Türkiye''de Konut Piyasasının Talep Yönlü Analizi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 19(217), pages 75-83.
    13. Sohail Ahmad, 2015. "Housing demand and housing policy in urban Bangladesh," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(4), pages 738-755, March.
    14. Daniel Fernández-Kranz & Mark Hon, 2006. "A Cross-Section Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand in Spain: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 449-470, June.
    15. Hanushek, Eric A & Quigley, John M, 1980. "What Is the Price Elasticity of Housing Demand?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 449-454, August.
    16. Piyush Tiwari & Kirit Parikh & Jyoti Parikh, 1999. "Effective Housing Demand in Mumbai (Bombay) Metropolitan Region," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 36(10), pages 1783-1809, September.
    17. Han, Xuehui, 2010. "Housing demand in Shanghai: A discrete choice approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 355-376, June.
    18. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
    19. Carliner, Geoffrey, 1973. "Income Elasticity of Housing Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(4), pages 528-532, November.
    20. Adrienne La Grange & Frederik Pretorius, 2000. "Ontology, Policy and the Market: Trends to Home-ownership in Hong Kong," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 37(9), pages 1561-1582, August.
    21. Wang, Zhi & Zhang, Qinghua, 2014. "Fundamental factors in the housing markets of China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 53-61.
    22. Jaume Garcia & Josep Maria Raya, 2011. "Price and Income Elasticities of Demand for Housing Characteristics in the City of Barcelona," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 597-608.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Janusz Sobieraj & Dominik Metelski, 2021. "Testing Housing Markets for Episodes of Exuberance: Evidence from Different Polish Cities," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-29, September.
    2. Arif Igdeli, 2020. "A Spatial Econometric Analysis on the Determinants of Regional Housing Demand," Bingol University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bingol University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 145-165, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karmali,Nadeem M. & Aline Weng, 2022. "Housing Demand and Affordability in India : Implications for Housing Policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10031, The World Bank.
    2. Hussain Mohammed A. Al Obaid, 2020. "Factors Determining Housing Demand in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 150-157.
    3. Bandyopadhyay, Arindam & Kuvalekar, S V & Basu, Sanjay & Baid, Shilpa & Saha, Asish, 2008. "A Study of Residential Housing Demand in India," MPRA Paper 9339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ömer ALKAN & Abdulkerim KARAASLAN & Hayri ABAR & Ali Kemal ÇELIK & Erkan OKTAY, 2014. "Factors Affecting Motives For Housing Demand: The Case Of A Turkish Province," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 9(3), pages 70-86, August.
    5. Orhan SANLI & Osman PEKER, 2023. "Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rates and Income on House Sales: a Case of Turkiye," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 37-60, January.
    6. Alla Koblyakova & Larisa Fleishman & Orly Furman, 2022. "Accuracy of Households’ Dwelling Valuations, Housing Demand and Mortgage Decisions: Israeli Case," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 48-74, July.
    7. Wenli Li & Haiyong Liu & Fang Yang & Rui Yao, 2016. "Housing Over Time And Over The Life Cycle: A Structural Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1237-1260, November.
    8. Fang Yang & Wenli Li & Haiyong Liu & Rui Yao, 2014. "Housing over Time and over the Life Cycle: A Structural Estimation," Departmental Working Papers 2014-12, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    9. Fontenla, Matas & Gonzalez, Fidel, 2009. "Housing demand in Mexico," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12, March.
    10. Barrios García, Javier A. & Rodríguez Hernández, José E., 2008. "Housing demand in Spain according to dwelling type: Microeconometric evidence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 363-377, July.
    11. Cao, Yujin & Chen, Jidong & Zhang, Qinghua, 2018. "Housing investment in urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 212-247.
    12. Mitchell, Olivia S. & Piggott, John, 2004. "Unlocking housing equity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 466-505, December.
    13. In Ho Song, 2013. "House Prices and Monetary Policy: Focus on The Elasticity of Intra-Temporal Substitution between Housing and Consumption," 2013 Meeting Papers 747, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Chen, W.D., 2016. "Policy failure or success? Detecting market failure in China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 109-121.
    15. Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "The demand for new housing in Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 62-74.
    16. Baris Teke, 2013. "Effects of a Change in the Composition of IMKB 30 on Stock Performance," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 13(51), pages 21-57, April.
    17. Tsang, Chun-Kei & Wong, Wing-Keung & Horowitz, Ira, 2016. "A stochastic-dominance approach to determining the optimal home-size purchase: The case of Hong Kong," MPRA Paper 69175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mavropoulos, Antonios & Xiong, Qizhou, 2019. "Housing consumption and macroprudential policies in Europe: An ex ante evaluation," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2019.
    19. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Krueger, Dirk, 2011. "Consumption And Saving Over The Life Cycle: How Important Are Consumer Durables?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 725-770, November.
    20. Khorunzhina, Natalia, 2021. "Intratemporal nonseparability between housing and nondurable consumption: Evidence from reinvestment in housing stock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 658-670.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing Demand; Real Estate Bubble; Bounds Testing Approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2016-03-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.