IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ist/iujepr/v10y2023i1p37-60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rates and Income on House Sales: a Case of Turkiye

Author

Listed:
  • Orhan SANLI

    (Aydın Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi, Nazilli İİBF, İktisat Bölümü, Aydın, Türkiye)

  • Osman PEKER

    (Aydın Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi, Nazilli İİBF, İktisat Bölümü, Aydın, Türkiye)

Abstract

In this study, the effects of the producer price index (PPI), exchange rate, interest, and income on house sales were examined in the case of Turkey. The study was conducted using the Boundary Test (ARDL) method of analysis and spanned the period 2013:M1-2021:M10. According to the empirical findings of the study, PPI and exchange rates have a positive effect on house sales. As a result, when PPI increases by 10%, house sales rise by 7%. House sales increase by 4% when exchange rates rise by 10%. Housing loan interest rates, on the other hand, have a negative impact on housing sales, as expected. House sales fall by 0.1% when mortgage interest rates rise by 10%. These findings indicate that house sales in Turkey are impacted by inflation and exchange rates. This situation, which contradicts the law of demand, stems from the fact that purchasing a house in Turkey is regarded as a significant investment and an anti-inflationary tool. Furthermore, despite the inflationary pressures caused by the exchange rate, foreigners play an important role in the continuation of housing sales and prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Orhan SANLI & Osman PEKER, 2023. "Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rates and Income on House Sales: a Case of Turkiye," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 37-60, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:iujepr:v:10:y:2023:i:1:p:37-60
    DOI: 10.26650/JEPR1104822
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/CE6A20D153A64622B7829DC83BA7CA60
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://iupress.istanbul.edu.tr/en/journal/jepr/article/enflasyon-kur-faiz-ve-gelirin-konut-satislarina-etkisi-turkiye-ornegi
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26650/JEPR1104822?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, January.
    2. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    3. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-3.
    4. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Ali Osman Solak & Burhan Kabadayı, 2016. "An Econometric Analysis of Housing Demand in Turkey," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(3), pages 1-3.
    8. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    9. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2015. "A Model of Mortgage Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1495-1554, August.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    11. Marek Jarocinski & Frank Smets, 2008. "House prices and the stance of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 339-366.
    12. Massimo Giuliodori, 2005. "The Role Of House Prices In The Monetary Transmission Mechanism Across European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(4), pages 519-543, September.
    13. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    14. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    15. Ermisch, J. F. & Findlay, J. & Gibb, K., 1996. "The Price Elasticity of Housing Demand in Britain: Issues of Sample Selection," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 64-86, March.
    16. Jane Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane Sherlund & Jae Sim & Skander Van Den Heuvel, 2011. "Monetary policy and the global housing bubble [Assessing dynamic efficiency: theory and evidence]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 237-287.
    17. Jack E. Gelfand, 1966. "The Credit Elasticity of Lower-Middle Income Housing Demand," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(4), pages 464-472.
    18. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    19. Ferreira, Fernando & Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 2010. "Housing busts and household mobility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 34-45, July.
    20. Preston Martin, 1966. "Aggregate Housing Demand: Test Model, Southern California," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(4), pages 503-513.
    21. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Jacobsen, Dag Henning, 2010. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 218-229, December.
    22. de Leeuw, Frank, 1971. "The Demand for Housing: A Review of Cross-Section Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(1), pages 1-10, February.
    23. Duncan Maclennan & Gwilym Pryce, 1996. "Global Economic Change, Labour Market Adjustment and the Challenges for European Housing Policies," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 33(10), pages 1849-1865, December.
    24. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:26:y:2011:i:66:p:233-283 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Markus Demary, 2010. "The interplay between output, inflation, interest rates and house prices: international evidence," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, April.
    26. Piyush Tiwari & Kirit Parikh & Jyoti Parikh, 1999. "Effective Housing Demand in Mumbai (Bombay) Metropolitan Region," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 36(10), pages 1783-1809, September.
    27. Harold W. Elder & Leonard V. Zumpano, 1991. "Tenure Choice, Housing Demand, and Residential Location," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 6(3), pages 341-356.
    28. William Goetzmann & Eduardas Valaitis, 2006. "Simulating Real Estate in the Investment Portfolio: Model Uncertainty and Inflation Hedging," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2476, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2006.
    29. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
    30. Haydar Karadağ, 2021. "Türkiye Ekonomisinde Bankalar Tarafından Verilen Konut Kredileri, Konut Satışları ve İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişki (2010:Q1-2020:Q3)," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(80), pages 403-422, June.
    31. Carliner, Geoffrey, 1973. "Income Elasticity of Housing Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(4), pages 528-532, November.
    32. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    33. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Rodney Ramcharan & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2017. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3550-3588, November.
    34. Chin-Oh Chang & Shu-Mei Chen & Tsur Somerville, 2003. "Economic and Social Status in Household Decision-making: Evidence Relating to Extended Family Mobility," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(4), pages 733-746, April.
    35. Brett W. Fawley & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Four stories of quantitative easing," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 51-88.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Forgenie, David & Khoiriyah, Nikmatul, 2023. "Analyzing Food Import Demand in Indonesia: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 11(1), January.
    2. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik, 2020. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Prices - How Strong is the Transmission?," Working Papers 2020/14, Czech National Bank.
    3. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    4. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    5. Olena STRYZHAK & Ramazan SAYAR & Yılmaz Onur ARI, 2022. "Geopolitical risks, GDP and tourism: an ARDL-ECM cointegration study on Ukraine," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 14(1), pages 85-113, May.
    6. Zouheyr Gheraia & Sawssan Saadaoui & Hanane Abdelli & Naeimah Fahad S. Almawishir & Naif Nadi Abaalkaif, 2023. "Does Financial Development Really Improve Environmental Quality in Al-Jouf Region? Empirical Contribution to the Environmental Politics," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 194-201, July.
    7. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Constantinos Katrakilidis & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "Time-varying role of macroeconomic shocks on house prices in the US and UK: evidence from over 150 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2249-2285, May.
    8. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    9. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    10. H. Bayram Irhan & Nur Dilbaz Alacahan & Levent Korap, 2011. "An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 14(1), pages 38-61, May.
    11. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    12. Manamba Epaphra & Lucas E. Kaaya, 2020. "Tax Revenue Effect of Sectoral Growth and Public Expenditure in Tanzania: An application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 15(3), pages 81-120, September.
    13. Kaminski, Jermain & Hopp, Christian & Tykvová, Tereza, 2019. "New technology assessment in entrepreneurial financing – Does crowdfunding predict venture capital investments?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 287-302.
    14. Tang, Chor-Foon & Lau, Evan, 2011. "The Behaviour of Disaggregated Public Expenditures and Income in Malaysia," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 7(1-2), pages 1-13, March.
    15. Chor Foon Tang & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2009. "The Effects Of Disaggregated Savings On Economic Growth In Malaysia - Generalised Variance Decomposition Analysis," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 04-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    16. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Goodness C. Aye, 2013. "Macro Shocks And House Prices In South Africa," Working Papers 201302, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Tang, Chor Foon, 2010. "The determinants of health expenditure in Malaysia: A time series analysis," MPRA Paper 24356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    19. Hande Aksöz Yılmaz, 2020. "The Impact of Foreign Trade on Immigration from Turkey to Germany: ARDL Bounds Test Approach," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 62(62), pages 123-143, December.
    20. Caner Demir, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Fluctuations: The Case of BIST-100," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rates; Home Sales; Interest Rates; Income; PPI JEL Classification : E00 ; F31 ; G51;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ist:iujepr:v:10:y:2023:i:1:p:37-60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ertugrul YASAR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifisttr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.