IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-16-00672.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evidence for threshold eff​ects in the pass-through of carbon prices to wholesale electricity prices

Author

Listed:
  • Djamel Kirat

    (Univ. Orléans, CNRS, LEO, UMR 7322, F45067, Orléans, France.)

  • Ibrahim Ahamada

    (IMF, University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Centre d''Economie de la Sorbonne (CES))

Abstract

This article considers the evidence for threshold effects in the relationship between electricity and emission permit prices in France and Germany during the second phase of the EU ETS. Specifically, we compare linear and nonlinear threshold models of electricity prices using Hansen's (2000) approach of sample splitting and threshold estimation. We find evidence of nonlinear threshold effects in both countries. The estimated carbon price thresholds are 14.94 and 12.57 euros in France and Germany, respectively. The carbon price threshold in France perfectly coincides with the well-known carbon spot price structural break occurred on October 2008. This is not the case for the carbon price threshold in Germany. An in-depth analysis reveals that during the period before October 2008, carbon prices were not reflected in electricity prices in either countries. This is mainly due to uncertainties about the future of the EU ETS that have led electricity producers to adopt a wait and see behavior. After October 2008, French electricity producers passthrough the price of emission permits into electricity prices in a linear way, while their German counterparts do so nonlinearly.

Suggested Citation

  • Djamel Kirat & Ibrahim Ahamada, 2016. "Evidence for threshold eff​ects in the pass-through of carbon prices to wholesale electricity prices," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2350-2364.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00672
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2016/Volume36/EB-16-V36-I4-P227.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    2. Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2015. "The impact of phase II of the EU ETS on wholesale electricity prices," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 125(6), pages 887-908.
    3. Sijm, Jos & Chen, Yihsu & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2012. "The impact of power market structure on CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices under quantity competition – A theoretical approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1143-1152.
    4. Kirat, Djamel & Ahamada, Ibrahim, 2011. "The impact of the European Union emission trading scheme on the electricity-generation sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 995-1003, September.
    5. Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2011. "The impact of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme on electricity generation," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00629900, HAL.
    6. Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2011. "The impact of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme on electricity generation," Post-Print hal-00629900, HAL.
    7. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    8. Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2012. "The impact of phase II of the EU ETS on the electricity-generation sector," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12007, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    9. Stavins Robert N., 1995. "Transaction Costs and Tradeable Permits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 133-148, September.
    10. Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2011. "The impact of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme on electricity generation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00629900, HAL.
    11. Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2015. "The impact of phase II of the EU ETS on wholesale electricity prices," Post-Print insu-01558352, HAL.
    12. Perrels, Adriaan & Honkatukia, Juha & Mälkönen, Ville, 2006. "Impacts of the European Emission Trade System on Finnish Wholesale Electricity Prices," Discussion Papers 405, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gavard, Claire & Kirat, Djamel, 2018. "Flexibility in the market for international carbon credits and price dynamics difference with European allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 504-518.
    2. Frieder Mokinski & Nikolas Wölfing, 2014. "The effect of regulatory scrutiny: Asymmetric cost pass-through in power wholesale and its end," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 175-193, April.
    3. Tang, Ling & Wang, Haohan & Li, Ling & Yang, Kaitong & Mi, Zhifu, 2020. "Quantitative models in emission trading system research: A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Teng, Fei & Wang, Xin & Zhiqiang, LV, 2014. "Introducing the emissions trading system to China’s electricity sector: Challenges and opportunities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 39-45.
    5. Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2012. "Evidence of a nonlinear effect of the EU ETS on the electricity-generation sector," Post-Print halshs-00717629, HAL.
    6. Andrianesis, Panagiotis & Biskas, Pandelis & Liberopoulos, George, 2021. "Evaluating the cost of emissions in a pool-based electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    7. Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2012. "Evidence of a nonlinear effect of the EU ETS on the electricity-generation sector," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12047, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    8. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Li, M.W., 2014. "An integrated optimization modeling approach for planning emission trading and clean-energy development under uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 31-46.
    9. Leroutier, Marion, 2022. "Carbon pricing and power sector decarbonization: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    10. Rübbelke, Dirk & Vögele, Stefan, 2013. "Effects of carbon dioxide capture and storage in Germany on European electricity exchange and welfare," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 582-588.
    11. Wang, Xue-Chao & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Wang, Yutao & Foley, Aoife & Huisingh, Donald & Guan, Dabo & Dong, Xiaobin & Varbanov, Petar Sabev, 2021. "Unsustainable imbalances and inequities in Carbon-Water-Energy flows across the EU27," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Hanif, Waqas & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Mensi, Walid & Kang, Sang Hoon & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "Nonlinear dependence and connectedness between clean/renewable energy sector equity and European emission allowance prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    13. Abrell, Jan & Kosch, Mirjam & Rausch, Sebastian, 2022. "How effective is carbon pricing?—A machine learning approach to policy evaluation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    14. Paolo Falbo & Cristian Pelizzari & Luca Taschini, 2016. "Renewables, allowances markets, and capacity expansion in energy-only markets," GRI Working Papers 246, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    15. Golombek, Rolf & Kittelsen, Sverre A.C. & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2013. "Price and welfare effects of emission quota allocation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 568-580.
    16. Franco, Carlos J. & Castaneda, Monica & Dyner, Isaac, 2015. "Simulating the new British Electricity-Market Reform," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(1), pages 273-285.
    17. George Daskalakis, Lazaros Symeonidis, Raphael N. Markellos, 2015. "Electricity futures prices in an emissions constrained economy: Evidence from European power markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    18. Onyebuchi, V.E. & Kolios, A. & Hanak, D.P. & Biliyok, C. & Manovic, V., 2018. "A systematic review of key challenges of CO2 transport via pipelines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2563-2583.
    19. Bersani, Alberto M. & Falbo, Paolo & Mastroeni, Loretta, 2022. "Is the ETS an effective environmental policy? Undesired interaction between energy-mix, fuel-switch and electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    20. Feng Liu & Tao Lv & Yuan Meng & Xiaoran Hou & Jie Xu & Xu Deng, 2022. "Low-Carbon Transition Paths of Coal Power in China’s Provinces under the Context of the Carbon Trading Scheme," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-14, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon Emission Trading; Energy prices; Nonlinear threshold regression model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.