Evidence of a nonlinear effect of the EU ETS on the electricity-generation sector
AbstractThis article considers the evidence for threshold effects in the relationship between electricity and emission permit prices in France and Germany during the second phase of the EU ETS. Specifically, we compare linear and nonlinear threshold models of electricity prices using Hansen's (2000) approach of sample splitting and threshold estimation. We find evidence of nonlinear threshold effects in both countries. The estimated carbon price thresholds are 14.94 € and 12.57 € in France and Germany, respectively. In Germany, the carbon price does not affect the electricity price below this threshold. In France, the price of emission allowances affects the cost of electricity generation only below the carbon-price threshold, thus revealing speculative behavior by French electricity producers on the carbon-allowance market. This is not the case for German electricity producers.
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Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
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Carbon emission trading; energy prices; nonlinear threshold model;
Other versions of this item:
- Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2012. "Evidence of a nonlinear effect of the EU ETS on the electricity-generation sector," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, UniversitÃ© PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12047, UniversitÃ© PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other
- Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2012-07-23 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2012-07-23 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-EUR-2012-07-23 (Microeconomic European Issues)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Juha Honkatukia & Ville Mälkönen & Adriaan Perrels, 2006. "Impacts of the European Emission Trade System on Finnish Wholesale Electricity Prices," Discussion Papers 405, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
- Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2012.
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Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, UniversitÃ© PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne
12007, UniversitÃ© PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
- Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2012. "The impact of phase II of the EU ETS on the electricity-generation sector," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00673918, HAL.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1996.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
- Kirat, Djamel & Ahamada, Ibrahim, 2011. "The impact of the European Union emission trading scheme on the electricity-generation sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 995-1003, September.
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