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Evidence of a nonlinear effect of the EU ETS on the electricity-generation sector

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This article considers the evidence for threshold effects in the relationship between electricity and emission permit prices in France and Germany during the second phase of the EU ETS. Specifically, we compare linear and nonlinear threshold models of electricity prices using Hansen's (2000) approach of sample splitting and threshold estimation. We find evidence of nonlinear threshold effects in both countries. The estimated carbon price thresholds are 14.94 € and 12.57 € in France and Germany, respectively. In Germany, the carbon price does not affect the electricity price below this threshold. In France, the price of emission allowances affects the cost of electricity generation only below the carbon-price threshold, thus revealing speculative behavior by French electricity producers on the carbon-allowance market. This is not the case for German electricity producers.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/CES2012/12047.pdf
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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 12047.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:12047

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Keywords: Carbon emission trading; energy prices; nonlinear threshold model.;

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  1. Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
  2. Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kirat, 2012. "The impact of phase II of the EU ETS on the electricity-generation sector," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12007, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  3. Juha Honkatukia & Ville Mälkönen & Adriaan Perrels, 2006. "Impacts of the European Emission Trade System on Finnish Wholesale Electricity Prices," Discussion Papers 405, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  4. Kirat, Djamel & Ahamada, Ibrahim, 2011. "The impact of the European Union emission trading scheme on the electricity-generation sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 995-1003, September.
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