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A comparison of different forecasting models of the international trade in India

Author

Listed:
  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari

    (ICFAI University Tripura)

  • Claudiu T Albulescu

    (Politehnica University of Timisoara)

  • Phouphet Kyophilavong

    (National University of Laos)

Abstract

We assess the out-of-sample forecasting performance of eight models on Indian real exports and imports. The results, in large part show only a slight increase or no clear increase in India's international trade. However, the results are very robust when comparing the predictions in terms of exports and imports. In both the cases, the ARIMA and ETS models perform better in terms of the accuracy fit.

Suggested Citation

  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Claudiu T Albulescu & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2014. "A comparison of different forecasting models of the international trade in India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 420-429.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-14-00017
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Forecasting; India; Exponential smoothing; Holt–Winters; Box–Jenkins;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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