Comparisons of Chinese and Indian Energy Consumption Forecasting Models
AbstractI evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of five models of Chinese and Indian energy consumption. The results are mixed, but in general the auto-regressive distributed lag and unobserved components models perform the best over multiple evaluation criteria. I then use these two models and generate long-term forecasts [2010-2040] for comparison with the International Energy Outlook of the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other similar publications. For both countries the forecasting models predict higher levels and growth rates of energy consumption than the published estimates.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 48621.
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
energy consumption; forecast; projection; China; India;
Other versions of this item:
- Vipin Arora, 2013. "Comparisons of Chinese and Indian Energy Consumption Forecasting Models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2110-2121.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
- Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-08-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2013-08-05 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2013-08-05 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harvey, Andrew, 2006. "Forecasting with Unobserved Components Time Series Models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
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