Forecasting time series with multiple seasonal patterns
AbstractA new approach is proposed for forecasting a time series with multiple seasonal patterns. A state space model is developed for the series using the innovations approach which enables us to develop explicit models for both additive and multiplicative seasonality. Parameter estimates may be obtained using methods from exponential smoothing. The proposed model is used to examine hourly and daily patterns in hourly data for both utility loads and traffic flows. Our formulation provides a model for several existing seasonal methods and also provides new options, which result in superior forecasting performance over a range of prediction horizons. In particular, seasonal components can be updated more frequently than once during a seasonal cycle. The approach is likely to be useful in a wide range of applications involving both high and low frequency data, and it handles missing values in a straightforward manner.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.
Volume (Year): 191 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Harvey, A. & Luati, A., 2012. "Filtering with heavy tails," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1255, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Ramli, Azizul Azhar & Watada, Junzo & Pedrycz, Witold, 2011. "Real-time fuzzy regression analysis: A convex hull approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 606-617, May.
- Taylor, James W., 2010. "Exponentially weighted methods for forecasting intraday time series with multiple seasonal cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 627-646, October.
- Taylor, James W., 2008. "An evaluation of methods for very short-term load forecasting using minute-by-minute British data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 645-658.
- Carrizosa, Emilio & Olivares-Nadal, Alba V. & Ramírez-Cobo, Pepa, 2013. "Time series interpolation via global optimization of moments fitting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 97-112.
- Corberán-Vallet, Ana & Bermúdez, José D. & Vercher, Enriqueta, 2011. "Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 252-265, April.
- Kim, Myung Suk, 2013. "Modeling special-day effects for forecasting intraday electricity demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 170-180.
- Reisen, Valdério A. & Zamprogno, Bartolomeu & Palma, Wilfredo & Arteche, Josu, 2014. "A semiparametric approach to estimate two seasonal fractional parameters in the SARFIMA model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-17.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.