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Generalizing the Theta method for automatic forecasting

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  • Spiliotis, Evangelos
  • Assimakopoulos, Vassilios
  • Makridakis, Spyros

Abstract

The Theta method became popular due to its superior performance in the M3 forecasting competition. Since then, although it has been shown that Theta provides accurate forecasts for various types of data, being a solid benchmark to beat, limited research has been conducted to exploit its full potential and generalize its reach. This paper examines three extensions on Theta’s framework to boost its performance. This includes (i) considering both linear and non-linear trends, (ii) allowing to adjust the slope of such trends, and (iii) introducing a multiplicative expression of the underlying forecasting model along with the existing, additive one. The proposed modifications transform Theta into a generalized forecasting algorithm, suitable for automatic time series predictions. The proposed algorithm is evaluated using the series of the M, M3, and M4 competitions. Such an evaluation shows that the proposed approach produces more accurate forecasts than the original, classic Theta, both in terms of point forecasts and prediction intervals, and is also more accurate than other well-known methods for yearly series.

Suggested Citation

  • Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Makridakis, Spyros, 2020. "Generalizing the Theta method for automatic forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(2), pages 550-558.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:284:y:2020:i:2:p:550-558
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.01.007
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    Cited by:

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    2. Evangelos Spiliotis & Fotios Petropoulos & Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, 2020. "The Impact of Imperfect Weather Forecasts on Wind Power Forecasting Performance: Evidence from Two Wind Farms in Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Fotios Petropoulos & Evangelos Spiliotis, 2021. "The Wisdom of the Data: Getting the Most Out of Univariate Time Series Forecasting," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Kang, Yanfei & Cao, Wei & Petropoulos, Fotios & Li, Feng, 2022. "Forecast with forecasts: Diversity matters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 180-190.
    6. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2023. "The RWDAR model: A novel state-space approach to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 922-937.

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