IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-07e20006.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does the “Phillips Curve” Really Exist? New Empirical Evidence from Malaysia

Author

Listed:
  • Fumitaka Furuoka

    (UMS)

Abstract

The hypothesized trade-off relationship between inflation rate and unemployment rate has been known as the “Phillips curve”. Though the Phillips curve has played an important role in the decision-making process on macroeconomic policy, there have been critics who doubted the existence of the “Phillips curve”. Despite a number of studies on the Phillips curve, there has been a lack of research that probed the hypothesis in the developing countries' context. This paper chooses Malaysia as a case study to empirically examine the relationship between inflation rate and unemployment rate. The most interesting finding of this paper is the existence of a long-run and trade-off relationship – and also causal relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate in Malaysia. In other word, this paper has provided an empirical evidence to support the existence of the Phillips curve in the case of Malaysia.

Suggested Citation

  • Fumitaka Furuoka, 2007. "Does the “Phillips Curve” Really Exist? New Empirical Evidence from Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(16), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-07e20006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2007/Volume5/EB-07E20006A.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Thimann, Christian & Backé, Peter, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 132, European Central Bank.
    2. Robert A. Hart, 2003. "Overtime Working, The Phillips Curve And The Wage Curve: British Engineering, 1926–66," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(2), pages 97-112, March.
    3. Mr. Vincent Hogan, 1998. "Explaining the Recent Behavior of Inflation and Unemployment in the United States," IMF Working Papers 1998/145, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Debelle, Guy & Vickery, James, 1998. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 384-398, December.
    5. John DiNardo & Mark P. Moore, 1999. "The Phillips Curve is Back? Using Panel Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 7328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Masso, Jaan & Staehr, Karsten, 2005. "Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-303, June.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    8. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-1275, December.
    9. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1998. "Is the Phillips Curve A Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 384-398, December.
    10. Sawa, Takamitsu, 1978. "Information Criteria for Discriminating among Alternative Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1273-1291, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kamel Helali & Thouraya Boujelbene Dammak, 2019. "Examining the Role of Structural Change in a Phillips Curve: Bivariate GARCH DCC Analysis," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 3, pages 385-393, September.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Islam , Faridul & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy: A Time Series Exploration of North Cyprus," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 35(4), pages 113-130, December.
    3. Mohammad Khanssa & Wafaa Nasser & Abbas Mourad, 2018. "An Econometric Analysis of Inflation and Unemployment in Lebanon: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 133-141, February.
    4. Ghafar, Aiman & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "The unemployment rate and its determinants: the Malaysian case," MPRA Paper 110220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Larry W. Taylor, 2009. "Penalized‐R2 Criteria For Model Selection," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(6), pages 699-717, December.
    6. Warapong Wongwachara & Anusorn Minphimai, 2009. "Unobserved Component Models of the Phillips Relation in the ASEAN Economy," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 241-256, July.
    7. Fumitaka Furuoka & Qaiser Munir & Hanafiah Harvey, 2013. "Does the Phillips curve exist in the Philippines?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2001-2016.
    8. Ismael, Mohanad & Sadeq, Tareq, 2016. "Does Phillips Exist in Palestine? An Empirical Evidence," MPRA Paper 70245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    10. Mohammed Saiful Islam & Riduanul Mustafa, 2017. "Quest for a Valid Phillips Curve in the Long Run: An Empirical Approach," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 191-198, April.
    11. Touny, Mahmoud, 2013. "Investigate the Long-Run Trade-Off between Inflation and Unemployment in Egypt," MPRA Paper 54561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "Testing The Existence And Stability Of Phillips Curve In Romania," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 10(1), pages 67-74.
    13. Abla A. H. Bokhari, 2020. "The Twinning of Inflation and Unemployment Phenomena in Saudi Arabia: Phillips Curve Perspective," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(2), June.
    14. John Michael, Riveros Gavilanes, 2020. "Una aproximación al análisis de causalidad entre la inflación y el desempleo en Colombia durante el nuevo milenio [An empirical approximation to the causality analysis between inflation and unemplo," MPRA Paper 103231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jing Lian Suah, 2024. "The "plucking" model of the unemployment rate floor: Corss-country estimates and empirics," BIS Working Papers 1159, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Andrea Vaona, 2016. "The Classical Dichotomy fails in the Eurozone," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2183-2191.
    17. Richardson Kojo Edeme, 2018. "Providing an Empirical Insight into Nigeria’s Non-acceleration Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 3(2), pages 179-190, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fumitaka Furuoka & Qaiser Munir & Hanafiah Harvey, 2013. "Does the Phillips curve exist in the Philippines?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2001-2016.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:16:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Islam , Faridul & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy: A Time Series Exploration of North Cyprus," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 35(4), pages 113-130, December.
    4. Fumitaka Furuoka & Chong Mun Ho, 2009. "Phillips curves and openness: New evidence from selected Asian economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 253-264.
    5. Furuoka, Fumitaka, 2009. "Unemployment and Inflation in the Philippines: New Evidence from Vector Error Correction Model," Philippine Journal of Development PJD 2008 Vol. XXXV No. 1-, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    6. Richardson Kojo Edeme, 2018. "Providing an Empirical Insight into Nigeria’s Non-acceleration Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 3(2), pages 179-190, July.
    7. Masso, Jaan & Staehr, Karsten, 2005. "Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-303, June.
    8. Lena Malesevic-Perovic, 2009. "Cointegration Approach to Analysing Inflation in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 201-218.
    9. Esu, Godwin & Atan, Johnson, 2017. "The Philip's Curve in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 82112, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Karsten Staehr, 2008. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion and the New EU Members from Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
    11. G.C. Lim & Robert Dixon & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009. "Phillips Curve and the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(271), pages 371-382, December.
    12. Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Do we know how low inflation should be?," IHEID Working Papers 06-2001, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    13. Mardi Dungey & John Pitchford, 2001. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Growth on Inflation, Australia, Canada and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 438, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    14. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
    15. Jayant Menon, 1993. "Import Price and Activity Elasticities for the MONASH Model: Johansen FIML Estimation of Cointegration Vectors," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-58, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    16. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2010. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 185-209, June.
    17. Steven Holland, 1994. "Inflation and Wage Indexation in the Postwar U.S," Macroeconomics 9402001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Carbajal-De-Nova, Carolina, 2021. "Wages and inflation in Mexican manufacturing. A two-period comparison: 1994-2003 and 2007-2016," MPRA Paper 109555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2005. "Non-linear inflationary dynamics: evidence from the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 51-69, January.
    20. Gadea, María Dolores & Kaabia, Monia Ben & Sabaté, Marcela, 2009. "Exchange rate regimes and prices: The cases of Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom (1874-1998)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 477-489, July.
    21. Abbas, Syed Kanwar & Sgro, Pasquale M., 2011. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve and inflation dynamics in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2022-2033, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-07e20006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.