Unobserved Component Models of the Phillips Relation in the ASEAN Economy
AbstractThe subject of this paper is the estimation of the Phillips relation ¡V the inflation-output gap tradeoff ¡V for ASEAN countries. Unobserved component (UC) models are employed in order to extract the output gap from GDP data. We also obtain stylised facts on macroeconomic cycles namely, (i) that the average cyclical period for output is approximately four years, and (ii) that the output movement leads that of investment. The inflation equation is then estimated as part of a bivariate model that includes an equation for GDP; the lagged output gaps enter the inflation equation as additional explanatory variables. The evidence for the significant relationship between the output gap and inflation in ASEAN appears to be very weak.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan in its journal Journal of Economics and Management.
Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
unobserved component model; Phillips relation; output gap; ASEAN;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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