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East Asian Financial Crisis Revisited: An Econometric Analysis, 1981-2001

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  • Feridun, M.
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    Abstract

    This article seeks to find out which macroeconomic variables played a role in the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 using a linear probability model built for Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, and Philippines. Results indicate that foreign direct investment, money stock, growth of exports, current account balance, and real interest rates seem to have played a role in the crisis in most countries, whereas the significance of domestic credit, inflation, and short-term debt relative to reserves appears to be rather weak as explanatory factors for the occurrence of the crisis.

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    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/ijaeqs213.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies .

    Volume (Year): 2 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 53-68

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    Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:2:y2005:i:1_3

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    Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm

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    Related research

    Keywords: financial crises; linear probability models; East Asian crisis;

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    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-72, January.
    2. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    4. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Pablo Bustelo & Clara Garcia & Iliana Olivie, 1999. "Global and Domestic Factors of Financial Crises in Emerging Economies: Lessons from the East Asian Episodes (1997-1999)," Working Papers 002, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
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