Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Der »Test des Tests« im Handel – eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest

Contents:

Author Info

  • Klaus Abberger
  • Manuel Birnbrich
  • Christian Seiler

Abstract

Das ifo Geschäftsklima ist ein Konjunkturindikator, der aus den Ergebnissen der monatlichen Unternehmensbefragungen des ifo Instituts berechnet wird. Die Antworten zu zwei Fragen gehen in diesen Indikator ein: die Bewertung der aktuellen Geschäftslage sowie die Erwartung hinsichtlich der Geschäftsentwicklung in den kommenden sechs Monaten. Die Interpretation, was unter Geschäftslage und Geschäftsentwicklung zu verstehen ist, wird dabei bewusst den Befragungsteilnehmern überlassen. Im Frühjahr 2009 führte das ifo Institut eine Sonderumfrage bei den Teilnehmern des ifo Konjunkturtests im Handel durch mit dem Ziel, mehr über die Faktoren und die Hintergründe zu erfahren, die den Unternehmen als Grundlage zur Beantwortung der monatlichen Konjunkturumfragen dienen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass für die Beurteilung der aktuellen Geschäftslage und für die Geschäftserwartungen die Determinanten Ertragslage des Unternehmens und Umsatz wesentlich sind. Zudem wird deutlich, dass die beiden Fragen flexibel genug sind, um die Konjunkturentwicklung in verschiedenen Sektoren der Wirtschaft abzugreifen. Zudem zeigen die Angaben in der Metaumfrage, dass der monatliche ifo Konjunkturtest überwiegend von Personen, die an der Spitze der Unternehmen angesiedelt sind, beantwortet wird.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2009/ifosd_2009_21_4.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 62 (2009)
Issue (Month): 21 (November)
Pages: 34-41

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:21:p:34-41

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Email:
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Konjunkturumfrage; Handel; Geschäftsklima; Deutschland;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima: Ein zuverlässiger Frühindikator," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, 03.
  2. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, 04.
  3. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Kapazitätsauslastung - ein gleichlaufender Indikator der deutschen Industriekonjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(16), pages 15-23, 08.
  4. Klaus Abberger, 2006. "ifo Geschäftsklima und Produktionsindex im verarbeitenden Gewerbe," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(21), pages 42-45, November.
  5. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "ifo Geschäftsklima, Produktion und Ertragslage in der gewerblichen Wirtschaft," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(03), pages 21-24, 02.
  2. Müller, Hans Christian, 2011. "Forecast Errors in Undisclosed Management Sales Forecasts: The Disappearance of the Overoptimism Bias," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48683, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  3. Christian Seiler, 2010. "Dynamic Modelling of Nonresponse in Business Surveys," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper Nr. 93, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  4. Carstensen, Kai & Schenkelberg, Heike, 2011. "Time- or State-Dependence? An Analysis of Inflation Dynamics using German Business Survey Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 12170, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  5. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 3179, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Horst Rottmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2010. "A Micro Data Approach to the Identification of Credit Crunches," CESifo Working Paper Series 3159, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Klaus Abberger & Stefan Sauer & Christian Seiler, 2011. "Der Test des Tests im ifo Konjunkturtest Handel," ifo Forschungsberichte, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 52.
  8. Stefan Sauer, 2011. "Einzelhandel und Kfz-Handel: Größere Investitionsbudgets," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(17), pages 45-49, 09.
  9. Müller, Hans Christian, 2011. "Forecast Errors in Undisclosed Management Sales Forecasts: The Disappearance of the Overoptimism Bias," DICE Discussion Papers 40, Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
  10. Christian Seiler, 2012. "The Data Sets of the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center - A Guide for Researchers," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 138, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  11. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.
  12. Stefan Sauer, 2011. "Großhandel: Steigende Umsätze und schwungvolle Investitionsdynamik," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(15), pages 32-35, 08.
  13. Schenkelberg, Heike, 2011. "Why are Prices Sticky? Evidence from Business Survey Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 12158, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  14. Christian Seiler, 2013. "Nonresponse in Business Tendency Surveys: Theoretical Discourse and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 52.
  15. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(05), pages 32-43, 03.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:21:p:34-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.