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Inflación y depreciación en una economía dolarizada. El caso de Bolivia

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  • Luis Fernando Escobar Patiño

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Pablo Mendieta Ossio

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

El trabajo examina empíricamente la magnitud del coeficiente de traspaso del tipo de cambio nominal a los precios internos ("pass-through") en Bolivia, utilizando distintas metodologías de vectores autoregresivos. Los resultados indican que la magnitud de este coeficiente es relativamente mayor a la encontrada para economías vecinas (incluyendo la experiencia peruana, que posee características similares en cuanto a dolarización se refiere), lo que reflejaría el grado de importancia del tipo de cambio como ancla nominal. Es probable que la caída observada en el coeficiente de traspaso en los últimos años esté relacionada con la casi nula modificación de los precios administrados de los hidrocarburos y, no con una caída estructural como en el caso de otras economías. El trabajo confirma la relación no lineal entre la inflación y la depreciación, aunque distinta a la obtenida anteriormente en otros estudios: una mayor tasa de depreciación incrementa rápidamente el traspaso y hace que el efecto sea más variable; mientras que menores tasas de depreciación reducen de forma gradual el coeficiente de traspaso. Finalmente, se obtuvo una estimación del coeficiente de traspaso esperado, que resultó cercano a la unidad y que difiere del traspaso efectivo, mostrando el rol crucial que tiene el tipo de cambio como ancla nominal de las expectativas de los agentes económicos.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Banco Central de Bolivia in its journal Revista de Análisis.

Volume (Year): 6-7 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2-1 (December)
Pages: 7-50

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Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:6-7:y:2003:i:2-1:p:7-50

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Keywords: inflación; depreciación; vectores autorregresivos;

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