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¿Es posible utilizar el tipo de cambio para hacer más competitiva la economía mexicana?

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  • José Romero

    (El Colegio de Mexico)

Abstract

El presente trabajo examina las posibilidades que tiene el Banco de México para hacer más competitiva la economía mexicana a través del tipo de cambio real. Se estima para México el coeficiente traspaso del tipo cambio sobre el nivel general de precios, para el precio de las importaciones en pesos, para el índice de precios de los bienes de consumo final y para el precio de las exportaciones, durante el periodo 1993M01-2012M12. Se encuentra en el corto plazo una caída del coeficiente después del año 1998 en el índice de precios al consumidor y en el índice de precios de los bienes de consumo final, pero no así en el precio en pesos de los bienes importados en pesos y en el índice de precios de las exportaciones. Los resultados encontrados no sugieren que la caída observada pueda considerarse como permanente. Si el nivel de la tasa de inflación y su persistencia se elevan en el futuro observaremos un incremento en el coeficiente de traspaso que, a su vez, daría nuevos ímpetus a las presiones inflacionarias. De hecho se muestra que en el largo plazo el traspaso es total. Estos resultados nos llevan a concluir que el Banco de México tiene control sobre el tipo de cambio nominal pero no sobre el tipo de cambio real, por lo que es incapaz de hacer más competitiva a la economía mexicana a través de esta vía

Suggested Citation

  • José Romero, 2013. "¿Es posible utilizar el tipo de cambio para hacer más competitiva la economía mexicana?," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2013-10, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    • Handle: RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2013-10
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    competitividad; traspaso; inflación; tipo de cambio; tipo de cambio real; Banco de México.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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