IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/rdevec/v26y2022i1p32-56.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Son preference and the demographic transition

Author

Listed:
  • Anna‐Maria Aksan

Abstract

In a general equilibrium model of fertility with higher economic returns to sons relative to daughters, parents choose overall fertility and the gender composition of their children. Son preference is partially endogenized to reflect how relative scarcity of females raises their value even while social norms and lack of economic opportunities lessen their value. These competing factors lead to an oscillating sex ratio. Model simulations demonstrate that son preference increases fertility, but that sex selection reduces fertility in the presence of son preference. The results suggest that effectively banning sex‐selective abortions in places such as India, which has struggled to enforce its existing ban on the practice, is insufficient and may have unintended consequences such as slowing fertility decline, reducing quality investment in girls, and slowing human capital accumulation and economic growth. Improving economic opportunities for women will increase the value placed on daughters, thereby improving the sex ratio and human capital investment in all children.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna‐Maria Aksan, 2022. "Son preference and the demographic transition," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 32-56, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:26:y:2022:i:1:p:32-56
    DOI: 10.1111/rode.12831
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12831
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/rode.12831?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Bongaarts, 2013. "The Implementation of Preferences for Male Offspring," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(2), pages 185-208, June.
    2. Holger Strulik, 2003. "Mortality, the Trade‐off between Child Quality and Quantity, and Demo‐economic Development," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 499-520, November.
    3. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June.
    4. Lena Edlund & Chulhee Lee, 2013. "Son Preference, Sex Selection and Economic Development: The Case of South Korea," NBER Working Papers 18679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Matthias Doepke, 2004. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 347-383, September.
    6. Leung, Siu Fai, 1994. "Will Sex Selection Reduce Fertility?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(4), pages 379-392, November.
    7. Strulik, Holger & Weisdorf, Jacob, 2014. "How Child Costs And Survival Shaped The Industrial Revolution And The Demographic Transition," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 114-144, January.
    8. Seema Jayachandran, 2015. "The Roots of Gender Inequality in Developing Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 63-88, August.
    9. V. Bhaskar, 2011. "Sex Selection and Gender Balance," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 214-244, February.
    10. Eliana La Ferrara & Alberto Chong & Suzanne Duryea, 2012. "Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 1-31, October.
    11. Marie-Claire Robitaille, 2013. "Determinants of Stated Son Preference in India: Are Men and Women Different?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 657-669, May.
    12. P. Bhat & A. Zavier, 2003. "Fertility decline and gender bias in," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(4), pages 637-657, November.
    13. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt, 2010. "Complements Versus Substitutes And Trends In Fertility Choice In Dynastic Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 671-699, August.
    14. James B. Davies & Junsen Zhang, 1997. "The effects of gender control on fertility and children`s consumption," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 67-85.
    15. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    16. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September.
    17. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
    18. Nancy Qian, 2008. "Missing Women and the Price of Tea in China: The Effect of Sex-Specific Earnings on Sex Imbalance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1251-1285.
    19. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
    20. S. Anukriti, 2013. "The Fertility-Sex Ratio Tradeoff: Unintended Consequences of Financial Incentives," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 827, Boston College Department of Economics.
    21. Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2002. "Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 775-814, October.
    22. Sunde, Uwe & Cervellati, Matteo, 2007. "Human Capital, Mortality and Fertility: A Unified Theory of the Economic and Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Arunachalam Dharmalingam & Sowmya Rajan & S. Morgan, 2014. "The Determinants of Low Fertility in India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(4), pages 1451-1475, August.
    24. Seema Jayachandran, 2017. "Fertility Decline and Missing Women," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 118-139, January.
    25. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226740867 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. V. Bhaskar, 2011. "Corrigendum: Sex Selection and Gender Balance," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 252-253, May.
    27. Nadia Diamond-Smith & David Bishai, 2015. "Evidence of Self-correction of Child Sex Ratios in India: A District-Level Analysis of Child Sex Ratios From 1981 to 2011," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(2), pages 641-666, April.
    28. Rubiana Chamarbagwala, 2011. "Sibling composition and selective gender-based survival bias," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 935-955, July.
    29. Christophe Guilmoto, 2012. "Skewed Sex Ratios at Birth and Future Marriage Squeeze in China and India, 2005–2100," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(1), pages 77-100, February.
    30. Alaka Malwade Basu, 1999. "Fertility Decline and Increasing Gender Imbalance in India, Including a Possible South Indian Turnaround," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 237-263, April.
    31. Vinod Mishra & T. K. Roy & Robert D. Retherford, 2004. "Sex Differentials in Childhood Feeding, Health Care, and Nutritional Status in India," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 269-295, June.
    32. Miss Sonali Das & Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Naresh Kumar, 2015. "Women Workers in India: Why So Few Among So Many?," IMF Working Papers 2015/055, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Onur Altindag, 2016. "Son Preference, Fertility Decline, and the Nonmissing Girls of Turkey," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(2), pages 541-566, April.
    34. Ridhi Kashyap & Francisco Villavicencio, 2016. "The Dynamics of Son Preference, Technology Diffusion, and Fertility Decline Underlying Distorted Sex Ratios at Birth: A Simulation Approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(5), pages 1261-1281, October.
    35. Christophe Z. Guilmoto, 2009. "The Sex Ratio Transition in Asia," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(3), pages 519-549, September.
    36. Peet, Evan D. & Fink, Günther & Fawzi, Wafaie, 2015. "Returns to education in developing countries: Evidence from the living standards and measurement study surveys," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 69-90.
    37. Daniel Rosenblum, 2013. "The effect of fertility decisions on excess female mortality in India," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 147-180, January.
    38. Aksan, Anna-Maria & Chakraborty, Shankha, 2014. "Mortality versus morbidity in the demographic transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 470-492.
    39. Martin Carnoy & Prashant Loyalka & Gregory Androushchak & Anna Proudnikova, 2012. "The Economic Returns to Higher Education in the BRIC Countries and their Implications for Higher Education Expansion," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EDU/2012, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    40. Woojin Chung & Monica Das Gupta, 2007. "The Decline of Son Preference in South Korea: The Roles of Development and Public Policy," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(4), pages 757-783, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Valentine Becquet & Nicolás Sacco & Ignacio Pardo, 2022. "Disparities in Gender Preference and Fertility: Southeast Asia and Latin America in a Comparative Perspective," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 1295-1323, June.
    2. Eleanor Jawon Choi & Jisoo Hwang, 2020. "Transition of Son Preference: Evidence From South Korea," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(2), pages 627-652, April.
    3. Ebert, Cara & Vollmer, Sebastian, 2022. "Girls unwanted – The role of parents’ child-specific sex preference for children’s early mental development," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    5. Matthias Doepke & Michèle Tertilt, 2009. "Women's Liberation: What's in It for Men?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1541-1591.
    6. Marla Ripoll & Juan Carlos Cordoba, 2011. "A Contribution to the Economic Theory of Fertility," 2011 Meeting Papers 1207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Wanru Xiong, 2022. "Dynamics between Regional Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios at Prime Marriageable Ages in China," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(2), pages 545-578, June.
    9. Ridhi Kashyap & Julia Behrman, 2020. "Gender Discrimination and Excess Female Under-5 Mortality in India: A New Perspective Using Mixed-Sex Twins," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2143-2167, December.
    10. Luis Angeles, 2010. "Demographic transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 99-120, January.
    11. William Lord & Peter Rangazas, 2006. "Fertility and development: the roles of schooling and family production," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 229-261, September.
    12. Greenwood, Jeremy & Seshadri, Ananth, 2005. "Technological Progress and Economic Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 19, pages 1225-1273, Elsevier.
    13. Martin Flatø, 2018. "The Differential Mortality of Undesired Infants in Sub-Saharan Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(1), pages 271-294, February.
    14. Vogel, Edgar, 2011. "Human Capital and the Demographic Transition: Why Schooling Became Optimal," MEA discussion paper series 11247, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    15. Qianqian Shang & Quanbao Jiang & Yongkun Yin, 2022. "How Does Children's Sex Affect Parental Sex Preference: Preference Adaptation and Learning," Working Papers wp2022_2202, CEMFI.
    16. Luca Spataro & Luciano Fanti, 2013. "From Malthusian to Modern fertility: When intergenerational transfers matter," Discussion Papers 2013/163, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    17. Larry E. Jones & Michele Tertilt, 2006. "An Economic History of Fertility in the U.S.: 1826-1960," NBER Working Papers 12796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Nguyen Thang Dao & Julio Dávila & Angela Greulich, 2021. "The education gender gap and the demographic transition in developing countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 431-474, April.
    19. Alexander Stimpfle & David Stadelmann, 2016. "Does Central Europe Import the Missing Women Phenomenon?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-04, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    20. Galindev, Ragchaasuren, 2008. "The Evolution of Population, Technology and Output," MPRA Paper 17116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Aug 2009.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:26:y:2022:i:1:p:32-56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.