IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/irvfin/v21y2021i4p1152-1178.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Biases in variance of decomposed portfolio returns

Author

Listed:
  • Vitali Alexeev
  • Katja Ignatieva

Abstract

Significant portfolio variance biases arise when contrasting multiperiod portfolio returns based on the assumption of fixed continuously rebalanced portfolio weights as opposed to buy‐and‐hold weights. Empirical evidence obtained using S&P 500 constituents from 2003 to 2011 demonstrates that, compared with a buy‐and‐hold assumption, applying fixed weights led to decreased estimates of portfolio volatilities during 2003, 2005 and 2010, but caused a significant increase in volatility estimates in the more turbulent 2008 and 2011. This discrepancy distorts assessments of portfolio risk‐adjusted performance when inappropriate weight assumptions are employed. Consequently, these variance biases have effect on statistical inference in factor models and may result in erroneous portfolio size recommendations for adequate diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Vitali Alexeev & Katja Ignatieva, 2021. "Biases in variance of decomposed portfolio returns," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1152-1178, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:21:y:2021:i:4:p:1152-1178
    DOI: 10.1111/irfi.12319
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.12319
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/irfi.12319?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blume, Marshall E. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1983. "Biases in computed returns : An application to the size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 387-404, November.
    2. Vitali Alexeev & Mardi Dungey, 2015. "Equity portfolio diversification with high frequency data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 1205-1215, July.
    3. Mardi Dungey & Matteo Luciani & David Veredas, 2012. "Ranking Systemically Important Financial Institutions," CAMA Working Papers 2012-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Randolph B. Cohen & Joshua D. Coval & Ľuboš Pástor, 2005. "Judging Fund Managers by the Company They Keep," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1057-1096, June.
    5. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    6. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    7. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1977. "Risk Reduction and Portfolio Size: An Analytical Solution," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(4), pages 415-437, October.
    8. Mech, Timothy S., 1993. "Portfolio return autocorrelation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 307-344, December.
    9. Vitali Alexeev & Francis Tapon, 2014. "The number of stocks in your portfolio should be larger than you think: diversification evidence from five developed markets," Published Paper Series 2014-4, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. Wei Huang & Qianqiu Liu & S. Ghon Rhee & Liang Zhang, 2010. "Return Reversals, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 147-168, January.
    11. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Medeiros, 2008. "Realized Volatility: A Review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 10-45.
    12. Branch, Ben & Freed, Walter, 1977. "Bid-Asked Spreads on the Amex and the Big Board," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 159-163, March.
    13. Linda Canina & Roni Michaely & Richard Thaler & Kent Womack, 1998. "Caveat Compounder: A Warning about Using the Daily CRSP Equal-Weighted Index to Compute Long-Run Excess Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 403-416, February.
    14. Philip Gray & David Gallagher, 2014. "Stock weighting and nontrading bias in estimated portfolio returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(2), pages 467-503, June.
    15. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    16. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1993. "Long-Term Market Overreaction or Biases in Computed Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 39-63, March.
    17. John L. Evans & Stephen H. Archer, 1968. "Diversification And The Reduction Of Dispersion: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(5), pages 761-767, December.
    18. Louis K. C. Chan & Hsiu-Lang Chen & Josef Lakonishok, 2002. "On Mutual Fund Investment Styles," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1407-1437.
    19. Weimin Liu & Norman Strong, 2008. "Biases in Decomposing Holding-Period Portfolio Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 2243-2274, September.
    20. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    21. Kewei Hou & G. Andrew Karolyi & Bong-Chan Kho, 2011. "What Factors Drive Global Stock Returns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(8), pages 2527-2574.
    22. repec:eca:wpaper:2013/130530 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Marshall Blume & Robert Stambaugh, "undated". "Biases in Computed Returns: An Application to the Size Effect (Revision of 2-83)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-83, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    24. Jegadeesh N. & Titman S., 1995. "Short-Horizon Return Reversals and the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 116-132, April.
    25. Tang, Gordon Y. N., 2004. "How efficient is naive portfolio diversification? an educational note," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 155-160, April.
    26. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jennifer Conrad & Robert F. Dittmar, 2003. "Risk Adjustment and Trading Strategies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 459-485.
    27. Liu, Weimin, 2006. "A liquidity-augmented capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 631-671, December.
    28. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    29. Miller, Robert E. & Gehr, Adam K., 1978. "Sample Size Bias and Sharpe's Performance Measure: A Note," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(5), pages 943-946, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, September.
    2. repec:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:1:p:84-104 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Flori, Andrea & Regoli, Daniele, 2021. "Revealing Pairs-trading opportunities with long short-term memory networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(2), pages 772-791.
    4. Dyl, Edward A. & Yuksel, H. Zafer & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R., 2019. "Price reversals and price continuations following large price movements," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-12.
    5. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    6. Vitali Alexeev & Mardi Dungey, 2015. "Equity portfolio diversification with high frequency data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 1205-1215, July.
    7. Miffre, Joëlle & Brooks, Chris & Li, Xiafei, 2013. "Idiosyncratic volatility and the pricing of poorly-diversified portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 78-85.
    8. Bilinski, Pawel & Liu, Weimin & Strong, Norman, 2012. "Does liquidity risk explain low firm performance following seasoned equity offerings?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2770-2785.
    9. Vitali Alexeev & Mardi Dungey & Wenying Yao, 2016. "Continuous and Jump Betas: Implications for Portfolio Diversification," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-15, June.
    10. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 23394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2010. "The Cross†Section of Expected Stock Returns: What Have We Learnt from the Past Twenty†Five Years of Research?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(1), pages 27-42, January.
    12. Martin H. Schmidt, 2017. "Trading strategies based on past returns: evidence from Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(2), pages 201-256, May.
    13. Huaizhi Chen & Lauren Cohen & Umit G. Gurun, 2021. "Don't Take Their Word for It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1699-1730, August.
    14. Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali, 2008. "Sur-réaction sur le marché tunisien des actions : une investigation empirique [Overreaction on the Tunisian stock market: an empirical test]," MPRA Paper 26751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali, 2008. "Sur-réaction sur le marché tunisien des actions : une investigation empirique [Overreaction on the Tunisian stock market: an empirical test]," MPRA Paper 76925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Zaremba Adam & Konieczka Przemysław, 2017. "Size, Value, and Momentum in Polish Equity Returns: Local or International Factors?," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 53(3), pages 26-47, September.
    17. Asad Kausar & Richard J. Taffler & Christine Tan, 2009. "The Going‐Concern Market Anomaly," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 213-239, March.
    18. Gao, George P. & Moulton, Pamela C. & Ng, David T., 2017. "Institutional ownership and return predictability across economically unrelated stocks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 45-63.
    19. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2002. "Partial Adjustment or Stale Prices? Implications from Stock Index and Futures Return Autocorrelations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 655-689, March.
    20. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    21. Shai Levi & Xiao-Jun Zhang, 2015. "Do Temporary Increases in Information Asymmetry Affect the Cost of Equity?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(2), pages 354-371, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:21:y:2021:i:4:p:1152-1178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1369-412X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.