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Risk Adjustment and Trading Strategies

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  • Dong-Hyun Ahn
  • Jennifer Conrad
  • Robert F. Dittmar

Abstract

We assess the profitability of momentum strategies using a stochastic discount factor approach. In unconditional tests, approximately half of the strategies' profitability is explained. In conditional tests we see a further slight decline in profits. We argue that the risk of these strategies should be increasing in the market risk premium. Empirically, while their risk measures estimated relative to the stochastic discount factor behave as predicted, market betas do not; thus capital asset pricing model (CAPM)-like benchmarks may lead to incorrect inferences. Given that our nonparametric risk adjustment explains roughly half of momentum strategy profits, we cannot rule out the possibility of residual mispricing. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 16 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 459-485

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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:16:y:2003:i:2:p:459-485

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Cited by:
  1. Fletcher, Jonathan & Kihanda, Joseph, 2005. "An examination of alternative CAPM-based models in UK stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2995-3014, December.
  2. Chen, Hong-Yi & Chen, Sheng-Syan & Hsin, Chin-Wen & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2014. "Does revenue momentum drive or ride earnings or price momentum?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 166-185.
  3. Bettman, Jenni L. & Maher, Thomas R.B. & Sault, Stephen J., 2009. "Momentum profits in the Australian equity market: A matched firm approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 565-579, November.
  4. Wang, Jun & Wu, Yangru, 2011. "Risk adjustment and momentum sources," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1427-1435, June.
  5. Raymond Kan & Guofu Zhou, 2001. "Tests of Mean-Variance Spanning," CEMA Working Papers 539, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  6. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Kim, Tong Suk, 2012. "Are good-news firms riskier than bad-news firms?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1528-1535.
  7. Szu-Yin Hung & John Glascock, 2010. "Volatilities and Momentum Returns in Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 126-149, August.
  8. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2001. "Downside Risk and the Momentum Effect," NBER Working Papers 8643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2013. "Momentum effect in individual stocks and heterogeneous beliefs among fundamentalists," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 3102-3116.
  10. Chordia, Tarun & Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2006. "Earnings and price momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 627-656, June.
  11. Hong Zhang, 2004. "Dynamic Beta, Time-Varying Risk Premium, and Momentum," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2637, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2005.
  12. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
  13. Fernando F. Ferreira & A. Christian Silva & Ju-Yi Yen, 2014. "Information ratio analysis of momentum strategies," Papers 1402.3030, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2014.
  14. Laura X.L. Liu & Jerold B. Warner & Lu Zhang, 2005. "Momentum Profits and Macroeconomic Risk," NBER Working Papers 11480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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