IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/eufman/v24y2018i1p79-112.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market†based estimates of implicit government guarantees in European financial institutions

Author

Listed:
  • Lei Zhao

Abstract

I exploit the price differential of credit default swap (CDS) contracts written on debts with different levels of seniority to measure the implicit government guarantees enjoyed by European financial institutions from 2005 to 2013. I determine that the aggregate guarantee increased substantially during the recent financial crises and peaked at an average of 89 bps in 2011. My analysis suggests that the extent of implicit support depends on the type of financial institutions and there exists a eurozone effect. Further investigation of feedback relationship shows that the guarantee implicitly offered by a government positively ‘Granger causes’ the sovereign's default risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei Zhao, 2018. "Market†based estimates of implicit government guarantees in European financial institutions," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(1), pages 79-112, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:24:y:2018:i:1:p:79-112
    DOI: 10.1111/eufm.12124
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/eufm.12124
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/eufm.12124?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2014. "Are All Credit Default Swap Databases Equal?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), pages 677-713, September.
    2. Sironi, Andrea, 2003. "Testing for Market Discipline in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Subordinated Debt Issues," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 443-472, June.
    3. Beyhaghi, Mehdi & D’Souza, Chris & Roberts, Gordon S., 2014. "Funding advantage and market discipline in the Canadian banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 396-410.
    4. Gorton, Gary & Santomero, Anthony M, 1990. "Market Discipline and Bank Subordinated Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 119-128, February.
    5. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    6. Lawrence Fisher, 1959. "Determinants of Risk Premiums on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67, pages 217-217.
    7. Zhou, Chen, 2013. "The impact of imposing capital requirements on systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 320-329.
    8. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Are banks too big to fail or too big to save? International evidence from equity prices and CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 875-894.
    9. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    10. Christian Brownlees & Robert F. Engle, 2017. "SRISK: A Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 48-79.
    11. Flannery, Mark J & Sorescu, Sorin M, 1996. "Evidence of Bank Market Discipline in Subordinated Debenture Yields: 1983-1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1347-1377, September.
    12. Jeffery D Amato, 2005. "Risk aversion and risk premia in the CDS market," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    13. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    14. Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2016. "Too-Systemic-to-Fail: What Option Markets Imply about Sector-Wide Government Guarantees," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1278-1319, June.
    15. Lars Norden & Martin Weber, 2009. "The Co†movement of Credit Default Swap, Bond and Stock Markets: an Empirical Analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 529-562, June.
    16. De Jonghe, Olivier, 2010. "Back to the basics in banking? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 387-417, July.
    17. Ueda, Kenichi & Weder di Mauro, B., 2013. "Quantifying structural subsidy values for systemically important financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3830-3842.
    18. Arora, Navneet & Gandhi, Priyank & Longstaff, Francis A., 2012. "Counterparty credit risk and the credit default swap market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 280-293.
    19. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    20. Black, Lamont & Correa, Ricardo & Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao, 2016. "The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 107-125.
    21. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    22. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
    23. Reint Gropp & Hendrik Hakenes & Isabel Schnabel, 2011. "Competition, Risk-shifting, and Public Bail-out Policies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2084-2120.
    24. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
    25. Franks, Julian R. & Torous, Walter N., 1994. "A comparison of financial recontracting in distressed exchanges and chapter 11 reorganizations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 349-370, June.
    26. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    27. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment‐Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
    28. Kenneth R. French & Martin N. Baily & John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane & Douglas W. Diamond & Darrell Duffie & Anil K Kashyap & Frederic S. Mishkin & Raghuram G. Rajan & David S. Scharfstein & Robe, 2010. "The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9261.
    29. Takeaki Kariya, 2012. "A CB (corporate bond) pricing probabilities and recovery rates model for deriving default probabilities and recovery rates," Papers 1206.4766, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2012.
    30. Acharya, Viral V. & Johnson, Timothy C., 2007. "Insider trading in credit derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 110-141, April.
    31. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    32. Goyal, Vidhan K., 2005. "Market discipline of bank risk: Evidence from subordinated debt contracts," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 318-350, July.
    33. Evanoff, Douglas D. & Jagtiani, Julapa A. & Nakata, Taisuke, 2011. "Enhancing market discipline in banking: The role of subordinated debt in financial regulatory reform," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-22.
    34. Nguyen, Tu, 2013. "The disciplinary effect of subordinated debt on bank risk taking," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 117-141.
    35. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    36. Avery, Robert B & Belton, Terrence M & Goldberg, Michael A, 1988. "Market Discipline in Regulating Bank Risk: New Evidence from the Capital Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 597-610, November.
    37. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ali, Searat & Hussain, Nazim & Iqbal, Jamshed, 2021. "Corporate governance and the insolvency risk of financial institutions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Fabrizio Crespi & Emanuela Giacomini & Danilo V. Mascia, 2019. "Bail‐in rules and the pricing of Italian bank bonds," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(5), pages 1321-1347, November.
    3. Addo, Kwabena Aboah & Hussain, Nazim & Iqbal, Jamshed, 2021. "Corporate Governance and Banking Systemic Risk: A Test of the Bundling Hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Huang, Xiaoyong & Yu, Cong & Chen, Yunping & Jia, Fei & Xu, Xiangyun, 2022. "Rigid payment breaking, default spread and yields of Chinese treasury bonds," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Bellia, Mario & Heynderickx, Wouter & Maccaferri, Sara & Schich, Sebastian, 2020. "Do CDS markets care about the G-SIB status?," Working Papers 2020-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    6. Mario Bellia & Sara Maccaferri & Sebastian Schich, 2022. "Limiting too-big-to-fail: market reactions to policy announcements and actions," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 368-389, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gündüz, Yalin, 2020. "The market impact of systemic risk capital surcharges," Discussion Papers 09/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    3. Flore, Christian & Degryse, Hans & Kolaric, Sascha & Schiereck, Dirk, 2021. "Forgive me all my sins: How penalties imposed on banks travel through markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    5. Avino, Davide E. & Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John, 2019. "Credit default swaps as indicators of bank financial distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 132-139.
    6. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Molyneux, Philip, 2020. "Beyond common equity: The influence of secondary capital on bank insolvency risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    7. Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde & Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2019. "Determinants of CDS trading on major banks," Working Papers Dissertations 51, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    8. Stephen Zamore & Kwame Ohene Djan & Ilan Alon & Bersant Hobdari, 2018. "Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 811-835, March.
    9. Cummings, James R. & Guo, Yilian, 2020. "Do the Basel III capital reforms reduce the implicit subsidy of systemically important banks? Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    10. Gerardo Manzo & Antonio Picca, 2020. "The Impact of Sovereign Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(7), pages 3113-3132, July.
    11. Santiago Forte & Lidija Lovreta, 2015. "Time†Varying Credit Risk Discovery in the Stock and CDS Markets: Evidence from Quiet and Crisis Times," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 430-461, June.
    12. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Are banks too big to fail or too big to save? International evidence from equity prices and CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 875-894.
    13. Hett, Florian & Schmidt, Alexander, 2017. "Bank rescues and bailout expectations: The erosion of market discipline during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 635-651.
    14. Black, Lamont & Correa, Ricardo & Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao, 2016. "The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 107-125.
    15. Daniel Dimitrov & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "Quantifying Systemic Risk in the Presence of Unlisted Banks: Application to the European Banking Sector," Working Papers 768, DNB.
    16. Michael G. Arghyrou & Maria Dolores Gadea, 2019. "Private bank deposits and macro/fiscal risk in the euro-area," CESifo Working Paper Series 7532, CESifo.
    17. Moratis, Georgios & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 2021. "Measuring the systemic importance of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Acharya, Viral & Anginer, Deniz & Warburton, Joe, 2016. "The End of Market Discipline? Investor Expectations of Implicit Government Guarantees," MPRA Paper 79700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Velliscig, Giulio & Floreani, Josanco & Polato, Maurizio, 2022. "How do bail-in amendments in Directive (EU) 2017/2399 affect the subordinated bond yields of EU G-SIBs?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 173-189.
    20. Völz, Manja & Wedow, Michael, 2011. "Market discipline and too-big-to-fail in the CDS market: Does banks' size reduce market discipline?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-210, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:24:y:2018:i:1:p:79-112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efmaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.