IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bic/journl/v20y2020i1p59-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Who is responsible for asymmetric fuel price adjustments? An application of the threshold cointegrated VAR model

Author

Listed:
  • Emilia Gosińska

    (Chair of Econometric Models and Forecasts, University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland)

  • Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior

    (Faculty of Economics and Sociology; Chair of Econometric Models and Forecasts, University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland)

  • Aleksander Welfe

    (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland)

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to test the hypothesis about asymmetric price transmission between the fuel markets. The distribution chain is considered at three levels: the European wholesale market, the domestic wholesale market, and the domestic retail market. It is shown that between the European and domestic wholesale markets fuel prices adjust symmetrically and asymmetrically between the domestic wholesale market and the retail market. This finding confirms that the most probable cause of asymmetric price adjustments (especially in new EU member states) is the behaviour of petrol stations and not of oil companies. The empirical analysis is conducted using an appropriately modified Hansen-Seo method. The procedure, which has until recently been used to estimate bivariate threshold models, prevents the presence of the constant in the cointegrating vector entailing the risk of severe distortion of the estimation results. Moreover, the interpretation of a dummy variable present in the CVAR equation as a result of a data generating process distortion is limited by its presence in the cointegration space.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilia Gosińska & Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior & Aleksander Welfe, 2020. "Who is responsible for asymmetric fuel price adjustments? An application of the threshold cointegrated VAR model," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 59-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:20:y:2020:i:1:p:59-73
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/1406099X.2020.1746114?needAccess=true
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. Heinrich Nel & Tadiwa Mangwengwende & Zivanemoyo Chinzara, 2011. "Bank concentration and the interest rate pass-through in Sub-Saharan African countries," Working Papers 233, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    3. Jean-Paul Chavas & Aashish Mehta, 2004. "Price Dynamics in a Vertical Sector: The Case of Butter," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1078-1093.
    4. Bettendorf, Leon & van der Geest, Stephanie A. & Varkevisser, Marco, 2003. "Price asymmetry in the Dutch retail gasoline market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 669-689, November.
    5. Mr. Arto Kovanen, 2011. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Ghana: Does the Interest Rate Channel Work?," IMF Working Papers 2011/275, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Sznajderska, Anna, 2013. "On the empirical evidence of asymmetric effects in the Polish interest rate pass-through," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 78-93.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    8. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    9. José Mª Martín‐Moreno & Rafaela Pérez & Jesús Ruiz, 2019. "Rockets and feathers behaviour in the Spanish gasoline and diesel market: New evidence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 657-683, October.
    10. Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron & Richard Gilbert, 1997. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 305-339.
    11. Chen, Li-Hsueh & Finney, Miles & Lai, Kon S., 2005. "A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric price transmission from crude oil to gasoline prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 233-239, November.
    12. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Laskowski, Cheryl, 2005. "Causes for an asymmetric relation between the price of crude oil and refined petroleum products," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1587-1596, August.
    13. Bumpass, Donald & Ginn, Vance & Tuttle, M.H., 2015. "Retail and wholesale gasoline price adjustments in response to oil price changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 49-54.
    14. Rahman, Sajjadur, 2016. "Another perspective on gasoline price responses to crude oil price changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 10-18.
    15. Samarendu Mohanty & E. Wesley F. Peterson & Nancy Cottrell Kruse, 1995. "Price Asymmetry in the International Wheat Market," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 43(3), pages 355-366, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grasso, Margherita & Manera, Matteo, 2007. "Asymmetric error correction models for the oil-gasoline price relationship," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 156-177, January.
    2. Abdhut Deheri & Stefy Carmel, 2024. "Do fluctuations in global crude oil prices have an asymmetric effect on oil product pricing in India?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-22, February.
    3. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera, 2007. "Econometric Models Of Asymmetric Price Transmission," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 349-415, April.
    4. D. O. Olayungbo & T. A. Ojeyinka, 2022. "Crude oil prices pass-through to retail petroleum product prices in Nigeria: evidence from hidden cointegration approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 951-972, May.
    5. Storhas, Dominik P. & De Mello, Lurion & Singh, Abhay Kumar, 2020. "Multiscale lead-lag relationships in oil and refined product return dynamics: A symbolic wavelet transfer entropy approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    6. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lunackova, Petra, 2015. "Rockets and feathers meet Joseph: Reinvestigating the oil–gasoline asymmetry on the international markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-8.
    7. Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2019. "Oil and pump prices: Is there any asymmetry in the Greek oil downstream sector?," MPRA Paper 95407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mirza, Faisal Mehmood & Bergland, Olvar, 2012. "Pass-through of wholesale price to the end user retail price in the Norwegian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2003-2012.
    9. Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2020. "Oil and pump prices: Testing their asymmetric relationship in a robust way," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Anthony Orji & Gladys C. Aneke & Manasseh O. Charles, 2019. "Did the global financial crisis alter the oil–gasoline price relationship?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1171-1200, October.
    11. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "A review of the evidence on the relation between crude oil prices and petroleum product prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-15.
    12. Jordi Perdiguero-García, 2010. "“Symmetric or asymmetric gasoline prices? A metaanalysis approach”," IREA Working Papers 201013, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2010.
    13. Gonzalo, Jesùs & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2005. "Threshold effects In multivariate error correction models," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0501, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    14. Zhang, Tao & Ma, Guofeng & Liu, Guangsheng, 2015. "Nonlinear joint dynamics between prices of crude oil and refined products," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 444-456.
    15. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2016. "Asymmetric oil product pricing in India: Evidence from a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-328.
    16. Sun, Yuying & Zhang, Xun & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Asymmetric pass-through of oil prices to gasoline prices with interval time series modelling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 165-173.
    17. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2010. "Modelling the Price of Unleaded Petrol in Australia’s Capital Cities," MPRA Paper 50396, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Oral Capps & Pablo Sherwell, 2007. "Alternative approaches in detecting asymmetry in farm-retail price transmission of fluid milk," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 313-331.
    19. Polemis, Michael L. & Fotis, Panagiotis N., 2014. "The taxation effect on gasoline price asymmetry nexus: Evidence from both sides of the Atlantic," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 225-233.
    20. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2009. "Do Retail Petrol Prices Rise More Rapidly Than They Fall in Australia’s Capital Cities?," Economics Working Papers wp09-08, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Threshold cointegration; threshold cointegrated VAR; modified Hansen-Seo method; fuel pricing; asymmetric price adjustments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:20:y:2020:i:1:p:59-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Zasova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/biceplv.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.